'Tall order': Ex-GOP gov reveals what Republicans 'have to hope for' to avoid 2026 blowout

The 2026 midterm elections are likely to be defined by Republicans' "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" that President Donald Trump signed into law last week. And one former Republican governor says his party is headed for major losses unless one specific thing breaks their way.

During a Tuesday segment on MSNBC, former Ohio Governor John Kasich (R) said he was already noticing blowback against Republicans over the law despite some of its most controversial provisions not yet going into effect. He acknowledged that because the polling on the budget legislation was already significantly against Republicans before Trump signed it, Democrats' narrative on the law as a giveaway to the rich funded by cutting social safety nets for the poor was already baked in.

"I think where the Republicans have a problem is the Democrats have already labeled it a bill that takes healthcare away. And I think that's really, really tough to counter. What the Republicans have to hope for is that there is an improvement in the economy, where they have to be able to point to the fact that people are better off with the enactment of that bill than they would have been had it not been enacted."

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According to Kasich, the GOP isn't likely to lose the U.S. Senate majority even if 2026 turns out to be a wave year for Democrats. However, because the House of Representatives' Republican majority is so small, the former governor said the GOP will have to bank on circumstances beyond their control if they're to have a hope of keeping control over the lower chamber of Congress.

"[Republicans] have a tall order. And look, whether this bill is popular or not, my judgment is the Democrats are going to win the House in the midterm elections," Kasich said.

"They're going to hear about this bill. Republicans are going to hear about this bill all the way through [the election cycle], being told that what they did is they cut healthcare, tax cuts for the rich, and at the same time, the debt went up," he added. "And that's tough to counter."

In a June analysis, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) found that the Republican megabill lavishes the richest 1% of Americans with an additional $64,770 per year in tax cuts on average, while the bottom 20% of Americans would see their tax burdens reduced by just $90 on average. And the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the more than $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts would throw approximately 12 million more Americans off of their health insurance over the next decade.

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