New election data raises an uncomfortable question for Republicans

Former journalist and longtime investor and CEO of Willett Advisors Steven Rattner sorted through the post-mortem data of the 2026 election and found some trends that are flying under the radar in the analysis. Among the findings is one data point that is going to be a bombshell for the GOP.

Speaking on "Morning Joe" Thursday, Rattner explained that since 1994 Republicans have largely reigned supreme. President Donald Trump and the modern GOP helped change that. The majority that was won on Nov. 3 is the second highest for Democrats in the post-Watergate era.

But the more meaningful data point is what happened to Trump's MAGA base: They didn't show up.

"About 25 million 2024 Trump voters didn't vote in a midterm House race," Rattner said on X, posting the chart. There were "3.6 million [who] backed a Democrat."

Rattner said that it isn't merely an election decided by those who showed up, but also by those who didn't.

"So, if you take the [Kamala] Harris voters, 75 million of them back two years ago, all of these folks voted for Democrats. Virtually none of them voted for Republicans, but a hunk of them stayed home. When you look, and this is typical, of course, in midterms, when you look at Trump voters, you can see, again, very few of them, a few more, but not a huge number defected to the Democrats."

So, Democrats had turnout that was a shift from 2022, but looked more like 2018. Meanwhile, Trump voters just didn't show up.

While there certainly was a solid chunk of Republicans who crossed sides, a "much larger share of the trump voters stayed home, just didn't vote." However, he's comparing that to the Harris numbers, which are from a general election and generally have higher turnout.

The Brennan Center for Justice data showed another major difference: Black voters. There was a significant decrease in the Black vote in 2022, when turnout was higher in 2018. The Black vote in 2026 was higher than anything in the past 16 years. PBS News reported that the numbers for 2026 among Black voters was so significant that it rivaled that of President Barack Obama's election in 2008.

Youth turnout, that is voters from 18-29 was the second highest it has been in 30 years. The highest turnout for young voters happened in 2018, according to the `Center for Information Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE).