Indiana was not just a blow to President Donald Trump’s effort to stack the deck for the 2026 election; it also undercut the perception of his power over the Republican Party. If Indiana Republicans who defied Trump’s demands are any indication, the push to engineer more GOP seats may be faltering.
Adam Wren reported for Politico Friday that Republicans are struggling to find the extra “padding” Trump wanted. Texas is gerrymandering out Democrats, while California has gerrymandered out Republicans; North Carolina picked up one new GOP seat, but Utah added one Democratic seat, for a net of three Republican seats. That is far short of what some in the party had hoped for.
Complicating matters, several House Republicans hold districts that also voted for Democrats such as President Joe Biden in 2020 and Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, meaning narrowly held GOP seats could flip in a blue-wave year.
There is also a pending Supreme Court ruling that could change Louisiana’s map, with the 6–3 conservative majority expected to give red states an advantage.
South Carolina, for example, Wren said, hasn't begun to redraw its lines, but leaders want to. If the Supreme Court case continues to weaken the Voting Rights Act, it means both states could redraw the districts. If the Voting Rights Act is gutted, Democrats fear "a 19-seat pickup for the GOP."
"And any decision will launch a torrent of legislation that could kick sand in the gears, at least for 2026. If you’re feeling exhausted by the redistricting fight: Take a quick nap. It’s a long road ahead," wrote Wren.