First post-verdict poll confirms independents are now distancing themselves from Trump

01 June 2024

Polling outlet Morning Consult didn't waste any time surveying voters after former President Donald Trump was convicted on all 34 felony counts in his Manhattan criminal trial. And their results spell bad news for Trump's attempts to appeal to voters outside of his base.

According to the poll, 54% of respondents supported the 12-person jury's unanimous verdict finding Trump guilty of covering up violations of election law by paying hush money to various women in advance of the 2016 presidential election. 34% of voters registered disapproval with the convictions, with the remainder undecided.

In addition to the approval of the verdict, a significant portion (49%) of independents polled think Trump should drop out of the 2024 race given his guilty verdict. Roughly 15% of Republican voters polled said the same, and even 8% of respondents who identified as Trump supporters thought he should suspend his campaign.

Overall, the poll found that 45% of voters told Morning Consult that they would vote for President Joe Biden in November, and 44% said they would cast their ballots for Trump, meaning the race is still within the margin of error for both candidates. Voters were also split on how the former president should be sentenced. 69% of those polled said a fine would be a sufficient punishment, while 49% said they would be in favor of probation. 44% of respondents said they would support incarcerating Trump.

A significant number of poll respondents also expressed distrust in the criminal justice system as a whole, with 77% of Republicans and 43% of independents telling Morning Consult that they viewed the prosecution as politically motivated.

In a post to social media platform Bluesky, Democratic strategist Murshed Zaheed said the poll suggested that calls would mount from both Republicans and Democrats alike "to call on the convicted felon to drop out of the race." Historian and professor Mike Gonzalez wrote that the poll is proof that President Joe Biden's reelection campaign has "an opening that they can’t ignore."

"His opponent is a felon, convicted by a jury of his peers," Gonzalez said.

Independents losing confidence in Trump won't help him in hard-fought swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Biden narrowly defeated him in 2020. In Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin in particular, Biden bested Trump by roughly 40,000 combined votes across all three states. If Trump hopes to secure 270 Electoral College votes, he'll need independent voters to get him across the finish line in especially close contests.

However difficult Trump's mission to court independent voters may be, the money race has certainly tightened after the guilty verdict. Trump's campaign announced it raised more than $52 million in the 24 hours following the verdict, which is more than the $51 million Biden's campaign raised in the entire month of May. Biden's campaign also fundraised off of Trump's verdict, though so far it has not indicated how much was raised.

Click here to read the full poll results.

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