GOP strategists 'privately' fear swing state Senate seat is 'out of reach'

In order to take control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms, Democrats will need to flip at least four GOP-held seats while keeping all the seats they are defending. One of them is held by incumbent Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff, who is ahead of his GOP challenger, Rep. Mike Collins, in a long list of polls. And according to New York Times reporter Shane Goldmacher, GOP strategists are "privately discussing whether the Georgia Senate race is out of reach."

In a Times article written with colleague Reid Epstein, Goldmacher took an in-depth look at signs the GOP is growing even more worried about the midterms — including Georgia's U.S. Senate race.

According to Epstein and Goldmacher, "In Georgia, Republican strategists are privately discussing whether the Senate race has drifted beyond the party's reach. In Kansas, Vice President JD Vance campaigned for a Senate Republican, even though a Democrat there has not been elected to the chamber since 1932. In Nebraska, a new Republican super PAC just sprang up to spend to defend a billionaire incumbent. And across the country, President Trump's political operation is suddenly investing in what once appeared to be bright-red Senate races and House districts, including several in Texas that his party claimed to have safely gerrymandered only a year ago."

The Times reporters added, "Less than seven weeks before the midterm elections, the political environment has deteriorated so badly for Republicans that the battlefield now extends deep into states and districts Mr. Trump carried three times, often by double digits."

According to a September poll by the Trafalgar Group (which is Republican), Ossoff has a 7 percent lead over Collins. Other polls show Ossoff ahead by 8 percent (Insider Advantage) or 9 percent (Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research).

Democrats, Epstein and Goldmacher report, "are bullish about competing in House districts and red states the party has not come close to winning for years."

"The party's campaign arm claims to be contesting 58 Republican-held seats, including several Mr. Trump won by as much as 20 points two years ago," according to the Times reporters. "The landscape Republicans are defending reaches deep into territory Mr. Trump won easily. A super PAC run by the Trump operation has bought $637,000 worth of advertising in Kentucky's 6th District, which the president carried by 15 points in 2024."