CNN data analyst Harry Enten on January 27, 2026 (Image: Screengrab via CNN / YouTube)
First Lady Melania Trump's eponymous film is slated to be released in theaters this weekend. But the film is likely to bomb at the box office, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten.
In a Tuesday segment on CNN's "OutFront," Enten told host Erin Burnett that there were multiple signs that "Melania" was going to perform poorly on its opening weekend. He noted that prediction markets show that a majority of bettors believe the documentary will gave a score of less than 20 percent on popular film review site Rotten Tomatoes.
"That's not good, Erin. That'snot good, being below 20 percent," Enten said. "... And whyis it why do they feel that theodds might not be so hot totrot? Well, it comes back to thefact that's the same reasonthat we don't think that it'sgoing to necessarily be sellingout a whole heck of a lot oftickets. Why? Because what's theprojection for opening weekendfor 'Melania?' It's just one to fivemillion dollars, which is again, not sogreat."
Enten compared the box office projection to the first lady's film with that of Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11," which is the current highest-grossing documentary of all time. Adjusted for inflation, Moore's film topped $41 million in its opening weekend, dwarfing projections for "Melania."
The CNN analyst underscored his argument by pointing to Amazon's staggering production costs for the film. When accounting for the $40 million Amazon paid Melania Trump for the exclusive rights to the movie, and the $35 million spent on advertising the film, the Jeff Bezos-owned media giant stands to lose tens of millions of dollars on the project.
"And one would think, giventheir marketing savvy, perhapsthey were aware of that," Burnett quipped, before Enten chimed in and noted that Bezos was still making money hand-over-fist with President Donald Trump back in the White House.
"The film 'Melania' mightnot be doing so hot to trot comethis weekend, but Jeff Bezos isdoing quite well," he said. "... His wealth —booyah! — up $35billion since early November of2024. I think there are somepeople who might see aconnection between that and themoney being spent. I'm notnecessarily making that connection, but some people certainly are."