Karl Rove predicts major 'upset' in upcoming elections — and silver lining should GOP lose

Longtime Republican strategist Karl Rove is cautioning Democrats from being overconfident heading into Tuesday's high-profile elections taking place across several states.

Mediaite reported Monday that Rove told Fox News that even though polls show Democrats leading in the top three marquee contests of the evening — New Jersey and Virginia's gubernatorial elections and the New York City mayoral race — Republicans have reason to be hopeful in two of those three elections. He also argued that while Republicans will likely lose the gubernatorial election in reliably blue Virginia, they may capture a separate statewide seat.

"Trump lost [New Jersey] in 2020 by 16 points. He lost it by six last time around. So the number one thing that the Republican candidate needs to do is he needs to build on the Trump bump," Rove said of New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli. "He needs to get those people who moved into the Trump column between 2020 and 2024, he needs to them out in an off-year election. To do that, he needs hold on to the Trump Hispanic and non-White gains."

"If I were a betting man, I’d say New Jersey could be an upset, the Republicans are gonna gain in the legislature," he continued. "In Virginia, I think we’re going to have a surprise because the Republicans are gonna hold on to the AG slot. And I think they’re gonna keep their losses in the House of Delegates to less than what the Democrats hoped they would get."

According to polls from late October, Ciattarelli trails Democrat Mikie Sherrill by six to eight points, while Democrat Abigail Spanberger has a solid double-digit lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia. And even though Democrat Zohran Mamdani has a significant lead over both former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (who is running as an independent after losing to Mamdani in the Democratic primary) and Republican Curtis Sliwa in New York City's mayoral race, Rove said a Mamdani win would provide plenty of political ammunition for Republicans in the future.

"In New York, we’re gonna get the gift that keeps on giving," he said. "We’re gonna have a Democratic socialist mayor who wins in the low 50s or mid 50s, in a city where 62 percent of the eligible voters are registered Democrats, 22 percent are registered independents, and only 16 percent are Republicans, conservatives, or members of little fringe left-wing parties."

CNN data analyst Harry Enten said last week that If Democrats sweep all three of the major races on Tuesday, it would only be the sixth time in 90 years they've accomplished the feat. Each of the past five times Democrats won all three elections, they went on to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the following year's midterm elections.

Click here to read Mediaite's full report.