Veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove is now warning that his party is bleeding support in a significant Republican stronghold ahead of this fall's midterm elections.

During a recent segment on Fox News' Journal Editorial Report, Rove — who was a top advisor to former President George W. Bush – cautioned that Republicans in Texas can no longer count on the Latino voters who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 to vote for GOP candidates in the midterms. When host Gerard Baker pointed out that Republicans make significant inroads with Latinos in the last presidential election, Rove agreed that it was a "big" problem for the GOP in keeping its majorities in the House and Senate.

"It’s a problem and we’re going to see it here in Texas," Rove said. "You can just see the support for Republicans in Texas diminishing, despite the fact that initially there was enormous support for the action in securing the border."

Baker observed that despite Republicans' mid-decade gerrymandering of U.S. House districts in Texas – which was designed to give Republicans the edge in five previously Democratic districts – the departure of Latino voters from the Republican coalition could endanger the GOP's midterm hopes in November. Rove agreed, and suggested Republicans may have made their work needlessly harder by spreading the Republican vote too thin in the Lone Star State.

"Take the district that runs from Corpus Christi to Brownsville. Donald Trump carried the district, but he carried it by one point," Rove said. "So if his support is softening among Hispanics, that makes it unlikely that we're gonna knock off an incumbent Democrat."

The GOP strategist further illustrated his point by noting that Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who Trump pardoned in 2025, refused to change parties. Trump is now actively endorsing Cuellar's likely Republican opponent in the general election, though Rove said those efforts may not be fruitful.

"Henry Cuellar ran ahead of [2024 Democratic nominee] Kamala Harris by nearly 10 points in the district that is centered from Laredo north to San Antonio," Rove said. "That's going to be a difficult district for us to carry, despite the fact that Donald Trump carried the last time around by I think four or five points."

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