Kari Lake’s likely loss a sign the GOP should 'give up on the damaged MAGA brand': columnist

28 September 2024

The battle for control of the U.S. Senate will likely boil down to just a few close contests. But despite Arizona's status as a swing state, one columnist believes its Senate race is now out of reach for Republicans given the poor performance of their nominee, Kari Lake.

In a recent op-ed for Bloomberg, columnist Erika D. Smith wrote that Lake — a former local TV news anchor who lost her gubernatorial campaign in 2022 — is a drag on Arizona's Republican Party. She cited several polls showing Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) comfortably ahead of Lake, including one Marist Institute survey that showed him ahead by 10 percentage points.

"It's a sign of just how far and how fast Lake has fallen from her once-coveted perch in Trumpworld — and, assuming the polls are correct, a sign that it’s time for Republicans to give up on the damaged MAGA brand if they want to start winning elections again in Arizona," Smith argued.

Lake has still not publicly accepted her narrow 2022 loss to now-Governor Katie Hobbs by roughly 17,000 votes statewide, and has likewise promoted former President Donald Trump's false claims of being the true winner of the 2020 election. Smith opined that Lake's brand of conservatism is a turnoff for the Grand Canyon State's electorate, and likely led to other Democratic victories like Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Arizona) winning reelection to another six-year term, as well as the victories of Attorney General Kris Mayes and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes.

In 2024, Lake's chances of winning are further complicated by a ballot measure that could permanently enshrine abortion rights in the Arizona constitution. Smith noted that the measure is currently polling well with 58% support, which she believes is another harbinger of doom for the Republican Senate nominee. Republicans are fearing that Democrats could also flip the Arizona legislature, where Republicans have slim one-seat majorities in both chambers.

"Of course, Lake doesn’t want to hear any of this. Somehow, she still thinks she has a shot at winning, citing campaign poll numbers that 'look good,' as she told Newsmax last week," Smith wrote, noting that Lake called her contest "a very tight race" despite polls that show otherwise.

According to FiveThirtyEight's aggregated polling data, Lake has not led in any polls since July. A Fox News-sponsored poll found Gallego ahead of the former news anchor by a whopping 14 percentage points. He's also leading Lake in fundraising, with OpenSecrets showing that Gallego has out-raised Lake by roughly $17 million, and has more than $8 million in cash on hand while Lake has just over $2 million.

According to Smith, the Arizona Republican Party is likely aware of Lake dragging down their chances of victory in the battleground state. She pointed out that in the AZGOP's new "Team Unity" billboard campaign, multiple far-right figures like Trump, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and billionaire Elon Musk are featured. However, Lake is noticeably absent from the images.

If Gallego defeats Lake in November, the Grand Canyon State will have two Democrats representing it in the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1952, with Kelly not facing reelection until 2028. The seat became vacant after Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Arizona) announced her retirement earlier this year.

Click here to read Smith's full op-ed in Bloomberg (subscription required).

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