'Numbers are ominous': Johnson says GOP may lose House due to 'electrifying' Harris campaign

17 August 2024

The energy Vice President Kamala Harris has brought to the Democratic Party since President Joe Biden dropped out and endorsed her last month is reportedly spreading to down-ballot races.

Politico reported Saturday that Democrats in both the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate are feeling especially bullish about their chances in November thanks to the momentum Harris has been providing with her ascendancy. While House Democrats in battleground districts were hesitant about tying their brands to Biden, they're now reportedly vying to have the opportunity to stump with her as they hit the home stretch of their own respective campaigns.

One unnamed member of Congress from a swing district speaking anonymously to Politico said that Biden's approval rating was roughly 30% among their own constituents despite winning it in 2020 and feared they would have to outrun the Democratic ticket in order to prevail this November. Now, that member says they are "feeling damn good" about their chances at winning another term.

According to the outlet, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) warned Republican members of Congress in a private call earlier this week that the "numbers are ominous" for the GOP this November. Currently, Johnson barely holds the gavel due to a razor-thin two-member majority. His speakership has been tarnished as multiple House Republicans have announced they were no longer seeking another term in office — including high-ranking committee chairs and member from safe Republican districts.

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-North Carolina), who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, has issued similar warnings to his party as Democrats continue to outpace Republicans in the campaign money race. Politico reported that Hudson said Democrats are "peaking really at the right time" with less than three months to go before Election Day.

Derek Tran, a Democrat who is running against Rep. Michelle Steel (R-California), said he had trouble breaking through with donors when Biden was still on the ticket. Despite Biden narrowly winning Steel's district in 2020 by six points, polls showed him trailing former President Donald Trump in the district by the same amount this year. Steel is reportedly just one of 16 Republicans serving in districts Biden won four years ago, making her seat particularly vulnerable this fall.

“It’s been like a 180 from what it was before,” Tran said told Politico. “The types of conversations I was having with donors and constituents out there was just, ‘We’re done. We don’t want to be part of this. This is stupid.’ As opposed to when we saw the change at the top of the ticket, it was electrifying."

Rep. Annie Kuster (D-New Hampshire), who announced her decision to not seek another term in Congress prior to Biden dropping out of the race, runs the centrist New Democrat Coalition. Her group is made up of 20 incumbent members of Congress and 40 other Congressional hopefuls. She told the outlet that prior to Biden's decision to retire, Democrats' trajectory was "unsustainable," and that her party was "losing ground all across the board in every part of the country." Now, she says polls are trending in favor of the New Democrat Coalition's members.

After Biden exited the race in late July, Harris went on to raise roughly $300 million in a matter of weeks and enlist more than 170,000 campaign volunteers. Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who conducts focus groups with swing state voters, said the energy from her campaign has led to undecided voters leaning Democrat, and Trump-leaning voters now saying they're undecided.

While Democrats need to flip just a small handful of Republican House seats in order to win back control of the lower chamber of Congress, their task is more difficult in the U.S. Senate. After Sen. Joe Manchin (I-West Virginia) announced his retirement earlier this year, his seat is expected to flip to GOP control in the ruby-red Mountain State. Republicans need to flip just one Democrat-held seat in the competitive states of Arizona, Montana, Ohio or Pennsylvania to win back the majority assuming Manchin's seat flips.

Click here to read Politico's report in full.

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