Trump's economic strategy is imploding in the polls

President Donald Trump is struggling in the polls right now due to the economy — but not, as it turns out, due only to inflation.

"Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, had fallen to about 3 percent when Mr. Trump returned to office, from a peak of 9 percent in 2022," New York Times' chief economics correspondent Ben Casselman wrote on Sunday. "Most economists expected it to drop further."

Casselman added, "Instead, progress stalled in 2025, partly because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which drove up prices of many imported goods. Then, just as the tariff effect was beginning to fade, Mr. Trump led the United States into war with Iran, which pushed energy prices and inflation back up. Consumer prices were up 3.7 percent in September from a year earlier."

Michael Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, told Casselman that “voters had the sense that President Biden’s policies were leading to higher prices, and voters have the sense that President Trump’s policies are leading to higher prices now. In both cases, I think voters made the right judgment.”

"Gas prices are just the most visible piece of a broader affordability challenge," Casselman wrote. "Record prices for diesel fuel are threatening to ripple through to food and other goods. The artificial intelligence boom has led to a surge in demand for computer chips and related equipment, which has raised costs for smartphones, tablets and other consumer electronics. And some economists say they believe companies are still waiting to pass along some of the cost of tariffs to customers."

Trump's trade war with Canada is particularly responsible for recent price increases, as America's longtime ally is retaliating against Trump's rhetoric and practices by slapping tariffs on a wide range of commonly-consumed goods. He has also exacerbated inflation by invading Iran, which has retaliated by closing down the Strait of Hormuz and thereby driving up oil prices.

“What Navarro said kind of demonstrates that he doesn't understand markets,” Dr. Robert J. Shapiro, a former economic adviser to President Bill Clinton, told AlterNe in March. “If there is a risk premium, it's only for oil futures — not for the price of oil today, not for the spot price — and then only when the risk is imminent. And so the price of oil rose by $10 in the runup to the launch of the war on Iran, which shows that it's not baked in.” Laughing, Shapiro added “these are commodities that are bought, sold and traded every day. They have a daily price, and the price reflects the supply and demand that day — and indeed in the morning, midday, afternoon or evening. So the notion that it was already built in is also clearly refuted by the fact that the price rose."