Harris just cut Trump’s lead in half in one of the reddest states

22 August 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris has been steadily outperforming former President Donald Trump in multiple battleground states and currently leads him in the latest national polls. But one recent poll shows she's making surprising gains even in ruby-red territory.

The Houston Chronicle reported Thursday that, according to the latest poll from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, Harris is now within five percentage points of Trump among Texas voters, trailing by a 49-44 margin. The August poll is the first survey UH and TSU have taken since President Joe Biden exited the race last month and threw his endorsement behind Harris. In the last poll, Biden was down by nearly 10 points in the Lone Star State (49-40), suggesting Harris may make a competitive run for Texas' 40 electoral votes.

As the Chronicle's Benjamin Wermund wrote, the source of Harris' success with Texas voters is her "big gains" with women, independents and young voters, whereas Biden struggled to motivate those groups when he was the nominee. According to the poll, Harris now leads Trump among women voters, 50-44, while Biden was behind Trump 46-42 among Texas women in the previous survey.

Texas hasn't voted for the Democratic ticket since 1976, and is considered one of the most reliably Republican states. However, its shifting demographics have made it possible for Democrats to run nearly even races with Republicans in recent elections.

In 2020 for example, Trump beat Biden by less than six points in Texas, making the Lone Star State a closer race than 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost by nearly 10 points. More than five million Texans voted for the Democratic ticket in 2020, and Biden won in urban centers like Dallas/Forth Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and El Paso, along with multiple counties near the Texas/Mexico border.

The latest UH/TSU poll suggests that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) may be more vulnerable than expected in his campaign for a third term this November if Harris motivates more Texans to turn out for Democrats. Current polls show Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) — a former NFL player — within striking distance of Cruz, particularly according to an August YouGov poll that showed Allred neck-and-neck with the two-term Republican. In 2018, Cruz barely beat then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) by just two percentage points.

Cruz may be aware of his vulnerability in the 2024 race, as his campaign has launched a "Democrats for Cruz" outreach effort this year. However, Allred cast doubt on the initiative's authenticity, saying Cruz "isn't fooling anyone" and that Texans "know exactly who he is" given his long documented history of supporting far-right policies.

Aside from Texas, Harris is also making gains on Trump in his newly adopted home state of Florida. Despite Florida reelecting far-right Governor Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) by comfortable margins in 2022, a recent survey by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found that the vice president is already beating expectations in the Sunshine State, trailing Trump by just five points. That same pollster showed Trump ahead by six just two weeks ago, suggesting Harris is steadily gaining ground in what was previously thought to be a non-competitive state for Democrats.

In addition to the presidential race, Floridians are also deciding a U.S. Senate race and whether to enshrine abortion rights in their state's constitution. Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Florida) is within four points of Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida) in latest polls, and abortion rights have yet to lose any ballot question anywhere, including deep-red states like Kansas, Kentucky and Montana.

Click here to read the Chronicle's report in full.

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