President Donald Trump stands with Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers as he delivers remarks on the economy at the General Motors Proving Ground in Milford, Michigan, July 27, 2026. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio
Republicans are still running behind in a must-win swing state race in the coming midterms, and as one of the nation's top election forecasting experts warned, the party is almost out of time to turn things around.
As President Donald Trump's toxic reputation with voters has tanked the GOP's midterm prospects, it has grown increasingly possible that it might lose its Senate majority, as well as the House of Representatives. One of the make-or-break races in that fight is in Michigan, where former Republican congressman Mike Rogers has continued to trail his Democratic opponent, epidemiologist Abdul El-Sayed. Republicans have attempted to torpedo El-Sayed's chances by accentuating his progressive stances as too left-wing, as well as his past affiliations with controversial commentator Hasan Piker, but so far, these efforts have not seemed to seal the deal with voters.
Decision Desk HQ is an outlet considered to be one of the foremost sources for election results tracking in the U.S. On Sunday, its director of data science, Scott Tranter, told NewsNation that "time is running out" for Rogers to reverse his fortunes, adding that the race is "closer than it should be if you’re the Republicans and want to keep the Senate." Tranter's site currently gives El-Sayed a 67 percent chance of winning the race, with Rogers only having a 33 percent chance.
"El-Sayed’s got the momentum. It’s pretty undeniable,” Tranter explained. “Michigan’s going to start voting in about a month on the early side. And look, everything you know about Michigan –– about a third of that voing to come in before Election Day. So Mike Rogers’s time is running out.”
Tranter also agreed with host Chris Stirewalt that El-Sayed could face scrutiny from Michigan's notable bloc of pro-Palestinian Muslim voters, given his past support of former Vice President Kamala Harris, whose association with the Biden administration and its support of Israel was widely credited with tanking her chances in the state. He has also faced pushback from pro-Israel voters over his criticism of the country's war in Gaza and his support for ending U.S. military aid over the situation.
Rogers, meanwhile, has faced criticism for his transition over the years from a more traditional Republican to a staunchly pro-MAGA Trump loyalist. The former congressman has previously been supportive of the president's hugely unpopular tariff agenda, which has had an outsized effect on Michigan, especially with the recently reignited trade war against Canada. He has also been supportive of Trump's war in Iran, with The Nation describing him as a "mega-hawk who has pushed for war with Iran for more than 20 years."