The campaign implosion that could cost Republicans their safest stronghold

Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso arrive for President Donald Trump's State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., February 24, 2026.

Republicans continue to stare down a midterm implosion in one of the most reliable stronghold states, with one veteran reporter and expert explaining to The Bulwark what is driving this trend.

On Saturday, Christopher Hooks, a reporter for Texas Monthly, appeared as a guest on the latest episode of The Bulwark's Focus Group podcast, with host and preeminent pollster Sarah Longwell. Among other topics, the two discussed one of the midterm races setting off the most alarms for Republicans: the Texas Senate race, where Trump-backed candidate Ken Paxton continues to trail his Democratic opponent in what has long been one of the party's most reliable states, setting up the prospect of a particularly embarrassing flip in November.

As Labor Day recedes into the rearview, money has begun flowing into the Paxton campaign to help stop the bleeding. However, according to Hooks, "misgivings" still abound among Republicans, who take issue with his character and with the notion of wasting money on his race when there are other races across the country that could use the help. Paxton has also reportedly been sounding the alarm to Republicans that a Democratic win in Texas this year could break the dam and make the state bluer for years to come.

"I talked to Texas Republicans, they have a number of different attitudes about it," Hooks said. "I think what Ken Paxton is telling conservative voters right now is that, if the Democrats get in this election, the Democrats are going to win forever here and it's going to be a blue state, and there's no coming back. But I think a lot of Republicans have the sense that if Ken Paxton loses this, it's because Ken Paxton sucks, pardon my language, and it's not necessarily something that's going to permanently derail the Republican coalition here. In private, Texas Republicans have always had a lot of misgivings about this character, and there's a lot of misgivings nationally, as you know, about how the primary ended.”

Longwell then shared some comments from Texas voters that she received from a recent focus group, outlining the disdain for Paxton that is driving his race towards the Democrats.

“I don't like the guy," one respondent said. "I mean, he's been indicted for securities fraud. He's also been linked to investments in companies. He's awarded contracts to, I believe... a camera company that installed cameras, I think, all over the state. I don't think his credibility is there to be a senator. I mean, I would definitely not vote for him.”

"I don't recall exactly what one of the issues was about," another voter said. "Something about house renovation, potentially, with him and his wife getting a vendor. I don't know, somebody that was his friend, and they said he used some campaign money for that, to me. I mean, I'm not saying this is okay, but politicians are very dirty, corrupt, and look at government right now.”

"I think he's a full-blown crook who's right in line with Trump as far as not being able to tell the truth," a third respondent said. "So this particular time, I won't be re-electing him anymore because it's to the point we are so conditioned when a person lies, we're just going to let it go.”

Hooks further explained that Paxton is the sort of politician common amongst Texas state Republicans, who has gotten to an advanced position in government without having to improve their skills as a candidate. This deficiency is now coming back to hurt him, as he is forced to actually try in the race against Democratic candidate James Talarico.

“In all of that time, he never had reason to become good at campaigning or to try to contest a general election," Hook said. "He just never had to do that. So over the years, I've seen him give a few stump speeches and appear at a few rallies, and he wasn't very good, and he didn't have any reason to get better because the only thing that he needed to advance in his position was things that were happening behind the scenes. So he ran for Senate because he hates John Cornyn, and he holds a grudge. He holds grudges for a long time, and he succeeded in taking out John Cornyn. It almost seems like having taken out John Cornyn, he's accomplished the thing that he really wants to do, and it doesn't seem like he really wants to be a Senator.”

From Your Site Articles