GOP’s hopes to keep House majority in serious danger after latest NY supreme court ruling

The New York Supreme Court is ordering the Empire State's independent redistricting commission (IRC) back to the drawing board in a ruling that could endanger House Republicans' already razor-thin majority.

Democratic-aligned election attorney Marc Elias tweeted on Tuesday that the state's highest court ruled in his favor, upholding his petition that the courts should compel the IRC to re-draw Congressional redistricting maps prior to the 2024 general election. According to the ruling Elias posted, those maps must be ready by the "earliest possible date, but in no event later than February 28, 2024."

"On Thursday, July 13, an appellate state court ordered New York’s Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) to redraw the state’s congressional map. On July 25, Republican intervenors appealed the July 13 decision," Elias' website Democracy Docket stated on its website. "On Dec. 12, 2023, New York’s highest court affirmed the appellate court decision requiring the IRC to reconvene to draw a new congressional map for 2024."

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Because the IRC now has to re-draw New York's maps of congressional districts, this could threaten House Republicans' majority, which it won back in the 2022 midterms only with the help of all Long Island-based districts voting Republican (two districts formerly represented by Democrats flipped to Republican control). According to CBS News, the GOP's sweep was the first time in "decades" that Republicans held all Long Island districts.

In their original challenge, Elias and his legal team argued that the New York IRC failed in its legally mandated duty to submit a second set of maps if the first set of maps failed to get a vote of approval by New York lawmakers. Because the IRC never submitted revised maps, the New York legislature had to draw the maps that were eventually used in 2022. However, the latest ruling from the New York supreme court suggests that the new borders may not be as friendly to Republicans, endangering their control of not just Long Island, but the House of Representatives as a whole.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California) departing the House at the end of 2023 will shrink Republicans' majority, meaning they can only avoid three defections before failing to pass legislation. And following the House's expulsion of former Rep. George Santos (R-New York), a special election for Santos' former district has been announced for February 13, 2024. Should Democrats recapture that district, it would further erode Republican control, with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) needing a virtually unanimous consensus among his caucus to pass bills out of the chamber.

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