Trump’s toxic ratings set up GOP for historic 'beating': top elections guru

U.S. President Donald Trump attends an event to honor Angel Families at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 23, 2026. REUTERS

A veteran of Washington’s election-forecasting scene says Donald Trump’s Republican Party is in for a “hell of a beating” in the midterms as voters head to the polls.

Charlie Cook has been calling the races since Reagan was reelected in 1984, and he told The New Republic’s Greg Sargent that he has never seen an election quite like this in 42 years, and he put his prediction bluntly, foreseeing a Trump-GOP “a—— whupping.”

The founder of the Cook Political Report, an institution in Washington, has retired and now publishes the Charlie Cook Politics newsletter. On an episode of Sargent’s podcast, The Daily Blast, Cook said this is an election like no other he has come across.

He made his case in last week's newsletter in a piece called “A unicorn election in red America.” In it, he says the deciding bloc isn't swing voters or independents, but rural Republicans who would normally be in the GOP column.

He writes that voters are fed up with the cost of living and the trade wars that have left farmers hurting. He also notes that ICE enforcement has led to a shortage of workers, along with the historically unpopular Iran war to top it off.

Cook puts Trump’s standing with Republicans at about 80 percent, which he describes as unenthusiastic support, down from 86 percent at the beginning of the year. He also writes that he is 25 percent with independents.

In the interview, Cook describes recent New York Times/Siena numbers as “gold standard,” and they put Democrats ahead in seven important Senate contests, some by a large margin.

Cook doesn’t believe the midterm results will be a classic blue wave. The generic national ballot can be misleading because the most hotly contested House districts are redder than the country at large; he sees it as a “red undertow,” not a Democratic surge.

Then there are the unhappy Republicans still mulling over whether to stand by the party, stay home or cross over, which, Cook says, makes them difficult for pollsters to get a read on.

Sargent and Cook discussed whether Democrats have a new chance to mend their relationship with small-town and rural America, an area they have struggled with for some time.

“They've got to connect again with people that live in, you know, what people call it flyover country, rural, small-town, whites that go to church regularly; these are groups that Democrats used to do pretty well, and now there's this big opening to reconnect with them right now," Cook said.

Cook predicts about 230 to 235 seats for Democrats and believes Democrats will have high turnout, with the opposite for GOP voters.

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