'Georgia can go either way': Expert says Harris is now erasing Trump’s lead in swing states

09 August 2024

President Joe Biden's path to 270 electoral votes was very narrow, and depended entirely on the three so-called "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But according to one election expert, Vice President Kamala Harris has a much more varied path to a 270-vote Electoral College majority.

In a Friday interview with MSNBC, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics said that thanks to growing enthusiasm around her candidacy, Harris is positioned well to win not only toss-up states like those in the Midwest, but also in other states that were previously favorable to former President Donald Trump. Sabato said one example is Georgia, which President Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes.

"Most of the Georgia experts we know and check with felt that Georgia was clearly leaning to Trump for most of this year, even before Biden's troubles, but that isn't true any longer," Sabato said. "[T]hose very same people — some of them Republicans — think it's a very competitive state, that Georgia could go either way. So it's now a toss-up."

Sabato also said that states Trump won in 2016 and 2020, like North Carolina, are also in play with Harris at the top of the ticket. He noted that even though former President Barack Obama won the Tar Heel State in 2008, he lost it in 2012, and it's remained in Republican hands since then.

Harris winning the state would be a major victory, as North Carolina has voted for Republican presidential candidates in all but two elections dating back to 1976. And according to Sabato, North Carolina Republicans nominating an "extreme" candidate in this year's gubernatorial race in the form of Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson could end up providing additional turnout from the state's more liberal voters who hope to keep the governorship in Democratic hands.

"That's one we're really watching. That is normally a Republican state," he said. "The demographics in North Carolina are changing, and those who have professional degrees of one sort or another are becoming more dominant in certain parts of North Carolina."

"Some Republicans get turned off by the gubernatorial candidate, and they may not be excited about Donald Trump, and they may not vote," he added. "So, will that happen? I don't know yet, it's too early to say. But it's certainly worth watching."

The Georgia electorate in 2020 not only delivered the Electoral College to Democrats, but also flipped two Republican-held U.S. Senate seats. The 2020 election and the 2021 runoff resulted in the Peach State voting for a Democratic presidential candidate and elected two Democratic senators for the first time in more than three decades.

However, Georgia's Republican-dominated state government has since made adjustments to state election law that will make a Democratic victory in 2024 that much more difficult. Earlier this month, Georgia Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger announced the rollout of a new website allowing any Georgian to challenge a voter registration in the Peach State. This is an accordance with a controversial new law passed by the GOP-controlled state legislature and signed into law by Brian Kemp allowing a Georgia resident to challenge an unlimited number of voter registrations.

Watch Sabato's segment below, or by clicking this link.

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