'He’s going to lose big': George Conway predicts Trump’s immunity bid will cost him election

15 June 2024

A pending Supreme Court decision could be what costs former President Donald Trump the Electoral College in the upcoming November election, according to a conservative attorney.

During a recent appearance on CNN, George Conway — the ex-husband of former Trump White House senior advisor Kellyanne Conway — predicted that not only would Trump lose his effort to get the Supreme Court to rule that he has absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for acts carried out while he was in office, but that losing that battle will result in him losing yet another election.

"I do trust the court on this. I think Donald Trump is going to lose," Conway said. "I think he's going to lose big."

"There may be a few wrinkles in the opinion that may add a few steps to the process, but at the end of the day, I don't think his argument is going to fly," he continued. "In terms of the delay, I wish they had not taken the case... but the fact of the matter is, I don't think there is a grand conspiracy or even an effort by some of the justices to put this off to help Trump."

The Court has until the end of June to rule on roughly two dozen cases still pending for its current term. One of those cases is Trump's argument that he can't be prosecuted for his involvement in allegedly plotting to overturn the 2020 election on January 6, 2021 and the days leading up to it. If the Court rules in Trump's favor, it would mean that Department of Justice special counsel Jack Smith's four-count felony indictment against Trump would be dismissed. But on the other hand, if the Court does as Conway predicted and upholds a lower court ruling that Trump is not immune from prosecution, then it could result in Trump facing another high-profile criminal trial just before Election Day.

"Fact of the matter is if the decision comes down the week of June 24, the last week of the term, that could mean that the case goes to trial at the end of September/beginning of October, which would be highly unfavorable," Conway explained. "The reason is when the case first went up to the [Washington, D.C.] Court of Appeals, it was 81 days before trial, and the court has said it's going to keep that 81-day schedule. And if you add 81 days to the end of June, you basically get the middle of the fall campaign, so it could actually backfire on Trump."

Assuming that SCOTUS strikes down Trump's immunity argument, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan would then be able to schedule a trial date. She has previously indicated that both sides would have between two and three months to prepare for trial, which lines up with the 81-day window Conway laid out.

Trump is facing four counts in the D.C. election interference trial, though two of those counts could be struck from the initial indictment depending on how the Supreme Court rules in another case still awaiting a final decision. The Fischer, Joseph W. v. United States case concerns a January 6 rioter who is challenging the legality of the charge of "obstructing an official proceeding," which is also a charge Trump is facing. If the Court takes Fischer's side, it would strike two of the four charges Trump has been indicted on.

If the former president does indeed go to trial in the D.C. election interference case, it would likely be the only one of the remaining three cases to reach the trial stage before the election. His Fulton County, Georgia election interference case has been indefinitely postponed by the Georgia Court of Appeals as it considers Trump's appeal of Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee's decision that District Attorney Fani Willis can remain on the case as prosecutor. The appeal likely won't be decided until the spring of 2025.

The last remaining federal case against Trump — in which he was charged with nearly 40 felony counts of mishandling classified documents — also does not have a trial date scheduled. U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, who Trump appointed to the bench in 2020, said a backlog of pre-trial motions still awaiting a final decision could take until late July to complete.

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