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'He is failing': Top GOP pollster explains why 'the next 6 months' could seal Trump’s political fate

Carl Gibson
21 July

Republican pollster Frank Luntz on CNN on June 27, 2025 (Image: Screengrab via CNN / YouTube)

President Donald Trump is now six months into his second term in office, and one prominent Republican pollster and messaging expert is cautioning that he may already be setting his party up for political failure in the coming midterm elections.

In a Monday segment with CNN host Brianna Keilar, polling expert Frank Luntz remarked that the "honeymoon" period for Trump was officially over as of this weekend, with the 45th and 47th president of the United States now officially past the six-month mark. And he observed that because Trump is already at odds with factions of his base along with independents, he's likely in for a rocky remainder of the year.

"His vote is not all of America. And he did get right at 50%. But a president should be trying to reach out to more than just 50%, should be trying to unite the country," Luntz said. "If you look at the issues in this legislation, you go issue by issue and you put it plainly to the public, a lot of them have majority support. But the legislation overall doesn't, because in his communication, he's focused on his base and he's doing a great job there. but that's not all of America. And I, as a pollster, have to see 100% of the country, not just the 49.9% who voted for him."

READ MORE: Carville says this 'forceful' 4-word phrase should be Dems' 'core message' going into 2026

Keilar responded to Luntz by referencing a CNN/SSRS poll conducted earlier this month finding that even on immigration – which is considered Trump's strongest issue – the president is underwater. And she remarked that while only 45% of respondents said in February that Trump had "gone too far" on deportations, that number jumped to 52% in April and 55% in July. Luntz said that while Trump had done well serving the priorities of his base, it was costing him the rest of the country.

"This is his goal. This is his objective, to reach out to the people who voted for him, to say, 'you made the right choice. I kept my promises. I kept my word.' And he's succeeding in that," Luntz said. "... But over the last three months, it's been much more polarizing, much more overt and some of the rhetoric has been really strong. And that turns off the people in the center. He is succeeding in reaching his people, but he is failing in unifying the country and bringing everyone on board."

According to Luntz, while a president gets a "break" from voters for the first six months of their term, the end of the "honeymoon" period also signals a start to the midterm election cycle. And he opined that Trump's divisive rhetoric and policies could end up being one of the Republican Party's biggest obstacles.

"Over the next six months, when Labor Day kicks in, then they're going to start to make decisions that will affect where they vote in 2026," Luntz said. "... What is essential is that we find some sort of common ground. So on issues that are so important — Medicaid, taxes, budgets, immigration — we can have a consensus so we can move forward as a country rather than moving forward as a political party or an entity."

READ MORE: 'Biggest thing that keeps Trump up at night': Dems announce major plan to counter GOP

Watch Luntz's full segment below, or by clicking this link.

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