Fox News reporter Chad Pergram explains that following the shocking resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who will vacate her seat in January, the math in Congress points to a bleak reality for Republicans.
Discussing the House of Representatives, Pergram says that while there are 219 Republicans versus 213 Democrats, there are three vacancies: Former Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) retired, the late Rep. Sylvester Turne (D-TX) died and former Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) resigned late last week after voters elected her governor of New Jersey.
The House also finally swore in Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ), six weeks after she won her special election in September to succeed her late father.
Pergram says: "The six-seat margin means that the GOP can only lose two votes on the floor and still pass a bill without help from the Democrats."
"But the math in the coming weeks and months quickly gets dicey for the GOP," he adds.
While Republicans are expected to hold onto a seat vacated by Green in a special election in Tennessee, Pergram notes, there's a caveat.
Special elections, he wrote, "sometimes produce weird results because the usual voting electorate doesn’t show up."
"Plus, surges by one party or the other in a special election held in either a deeply blue or ruby red district sometimes signals a boost for the party. Strong performances or even upsets sometimes portend what’s ahead in the next election. They also signal a referendum on the president," Pergram explains.
In next week's Tennessee special election between Republican Matt Van Epps and Democrat Aftyn Behn, Democrats are "pouring money into that contest hoping they can flip the seat," he notes.
"If they do, the GOP majority dwindles to 219-214. But if Van Epps prevails, the GOP gets some space with a 220-213 majority. But that only lasts until [Rep. Marjorie Taylor] Greene steps down in January. So the majority would dwindle to 219-213," Pergram says.
Democrats expected to hold the seat in a Jan. 31 special election to replace Sylvester Turner (D-TX), Pergam notes. But, because government funding ends on January 30, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) may off on swearing in Turner's Democratic successor Pergram writes.
"So, presuming Van Epps wins, and with Greene gone and either Democrats Amanda Edwards or Christian Menefee winning the Turner seat in Texas, the GOP majority dips to 219-214," he explains. "It’s a margin of five. But again, Republicans can only lose two votes and not need help from the other side."
With Democrats making Greene's seat "competitive" in a March special election, and if the GOP holds onto that seat, the Republican majority climbs to 220-214.
Pergram notes that's a big "If."
"At this stage, we are down to only one vacancy in the House — presuming no one else quits or, God forbid, dies," Pergram writes.
"The House is not a very pleasant place to be right now. That’s why some lawmakers may look for the exits early," the Fox News reporter explains. "And, there’s an old saying that 'Death will come. And it’s always out of season.'"
Pergram says the House is currently dealing with "one of the tightest majorities in history."
"The Senate majority has flipped a couple of times in the middle of Congress. The House majority has never switched in the middle of Congress. That may not be the case now. But the tenuous hold on power for the GOP has been the story of the House since the 2022 midterms. It’s one of the tightest majorities in history. And it wouldn’t take much to shift power," he says.