Florida's swing state days are over — and Ron DeSantis just sealed its fate

In recent months, states across the country have been grappling with redistricting efforts as Republicans and Democrats fight to create new congressional seats and shift the balance of power. The gerrymandering war was kicked off in Texas, and has since proceeded through several states, then on Wednesday morning, the Florida House passed the map proposed by Governor Ron DeSantis. The new map is expected to be approved by the state Senate later in the day then by DeSantis on Thursday, upon which Florida’s status as a swing state will effectively end.

The death of Florida’s purple distinction was called by Henry Olson, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. Writing in the Washington Post, Olson argues that Democrats who have been hopeful that the Florida redistricting would backfire on Republicans are wrong to be optimistic.

The new map will eliminate four Democratic seats, replacing them with districts that overwhelmingly supported President Donald Trump. While some have argued the Democrats and then Biden performed well in these districts in 2018 and 2020, meaning they’re not necessarily a lock for Republicans, particularly in the face of what appears to be another blue wave midterm, Olson says their hopes are misplaced.

“Six years is a very long time in 21st-century Florida, which is no longer the closely contested state it was in 2018 and 2020,” he explains. “Since then, Democratic voter registration has plummeted while Republican registration has soared, making for an overall partisan shift that is simply stunning. In 2018, registered Democrats in the state outnumbered registered Republicans by 250,000 voters. In 2020, registered Democrats still outnumbered Republicans by more than 90,000. The latest statewide figures, however, show there are now nearly 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats. In 2020, there were 5.3 million registered Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans. Today, there are 5.6 million active Republicans but only 4.1 million Democrats.”

That’s bad math for Democrats. As Olson notes, there has been a shift away from Republicans by Hispanics and independents, both of which have a strong presence in Florida, but he doubts it will be enough to counter the state’s massive shift to the right in 2024.

Olson points out that there is a chance the new map won’t survive judicial review, as Florida approved an anti-gerrymandering amendment to the state’s constitution in 2010.

“But if it does,” he warns, “it should deliver Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson the big win they are hoping for.”