Shock poll just put one of GOP’s must-win states in play

U.S. Congressman Byron Donalds speaking with attendees at the 2022 AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona. Image via Gage Skidmore.

Democrat David Jolly has built a 26-point lead over Republican Byron Donalds among voters in Broward County, according to a new poll offering a fresh look at one of the places Democrats will count on heavily in Florida’s increasingly competitive governor’s race.

According to South Florida’s Sun Sentinel, the Bendixen & Amandi International survey found Jolly ahead of Donalds 52 percent to 26 percent in Broward, one of Florida’s largest and most reliably Democratic counties.

The result is not a statewide poll, and Broward was always expected to favor Jolly. Kamala Harris carried the county by about 17 points in the 2024 presidential election. Still, Jolly’s 26-point advantage gives Democrats the kind of cushion they would want in South Florida if they hope to overcome Republicans’ statewide voter-registration advantage.

It also arrives at a moment when the race for governor no longer looks as comfortable for Republicans as it once did. The Cook Political Report moved the contest from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” this week, citing a tightening race between Jolly and Donalds.

For Jolly, Broward is familiar political territory in another sense. The former Republican congressman left the GOP years ago and eventually joined the Democratic Party, making his political transformation a constant part of the campaign.

Donalds, meanwhile, has campaigned as a conservative successor to Gov. Ron DeSantis and has enjoyed strong financial backing heading into the final stretch.

The Broward poll also found voters narrowly supporting Amendment 3, the property tax proposal that will appear on Florida’s November ballot.

The measure would dramatically increase the homestead exemption on non-school property taxes, beginning with an increase from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and then to $250,000 in 2028. It needs 60 percent statewide support to pass.

The issue has opened another clear divide between the two candidates.

Donalds supports the amendment and has argued that homeowners deserve relief after years of rising property tax bills.

“The reason why I support Amendment Three is because property taxes have almost doubled in the state the past several years, personal budgets haven’t doubled,” Donalds said this week.

Jolly opposes it, warning that such a steep reduction in local tax revenue could hurt counties that depend on property taxes to pay for services. He has instead pushed for more targeted relief, including help for first-time homebuyers.

For now, the Broward numbers show Jolly doing what a Democrat needs to do in one of Florida’s bluest corners: building a large lead. The harder question is whether he can carry enough of that strength beyond Broward to make the statewide race just as uncomfortable for Donalds.

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