Face it, Ron DeSantis is losing because he’s bad at this

26 July 2023

Ron DeSantis wants his party to think it faces a choice between Donald Trump and Not-Donald Trump (meaning him). “No matter how much the media and DC elites try to destroy Ron DeSantis,” his spokesman said, “they can’t change the fact that this is a two-man race for the nomination.”

But that’s not what new numbers show. Philip Bump, looking at polling from early states by Fox Business, found that, in addition to Trump being ahead by a mile of the other Republican candidates, runners-up included DeSantis about as much as they included anyone not named Donald Trump.

“In each state (Iowa and South Carolina), Trump leads the next-closest candidate by at least 30 percentage points,” Bump wrote. In each state, DeSantis is in a statistical tie for that second-place position. In Iowa, he gets 16 percent of support compared with 11 percent for Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). In South Carolina, he gets 13 percent vs. 14 percent for the state’s former governor, Nikki Haley. (Scott gets 10 percent there.)” He added:

The reason the DeSantis campaign spokesman is so insistent that the governor and Trump are the only two viable candidates is to reinforce that those interested in blocking Trump’s path to the nomination have nowhere else to go. But voters in Iowa and South Carolina — who, again, will help set the field early next year — don’t view DeSantis that way.

It seems the DeSantis campaign is doing more than merely spinning this latest polling. It’s doubling down on the original premise of the governor’s campaign, which is that DeSantis is just like Trump but without the baggage – two impeachments, two (possibly three) indictments and so on. That argument was always dubious but it’s getting more so. Republicans don’t support Trump in spite of the baggage. They support him because of it.

Robert Franklin, of Emory University, told the AP recently that “Trump benefits from a perception among some of his followers that he is suffering on their behalf.” “The more he complains of persecution, the more people dig in to support him, and for a few, fight for him and make personal sacrifices (of money and freedom) for his advancement,” Franklin said.

In this situation, in which everything begins and ends with Donald Trump, there’s no room for a Not-Donald Trump. There’s no room for Donald Trump II either. If he can’t be Donald Trump II, and he can’t be Not-Donald Trump, what can DeSantis be? The answer is a GOP candidate who doesn’t understand his own party, but keeps insisting he does to his own detriment.

Think about it. DeSantis doesn’t have to run. Former Vice President Mike Pence and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley do. Their odds are long, but now, after serving under Trump, is their best chance. DeSantis, however, is still in office. Unlike US Senator Tim Scott, he actually runs things as Florida’s governor. He’d probably win reelection again in 2026. He could wait for the next cycle when there isn’t also an incumbency to overcome.

But he’s not waiting, and I don’t think it’s a matter of ambition. I think it’s a matter of political prudence. He seems to believe, or he seems to have allowed himself to be convinced to believe, that there’s an appetite for a Donald Trump who is not Donald Trump when there can be only one. In other words, he seems to believe the hype instead of the reality on which hype is based. He’s losing to Donald Trump, because he’s bad at this.

You could say, well, why shouldn’t he run?

Indeed, lots of ambitious people run for president with every expectation of losing but in doing so, raise their profiles enough to be better positioned the next time. I don’t think that’s going to work in a situation in which everything begins and ends with Donald Trump. There are no runners-up. There’s only the winner, Trump, and the carnage that he leaves behind.

DeSantis could realize this, and stop contributing to the humiliation that will soon consume him. But he doesn’t seem to yet. Instead, he’s doubling down on the idea that “this is a two-man race for the nomination” and that Republicans who are on the fence about Donald Trump “have nowhere else to go.” They have nowhere else to go, but not for the reasons DeSantis thinks. There’s no Donald Trump II. There’s no Not-Donald Trump.

There’s only Donald Trump.

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