'Over the edge': Economist reveals 'likely thing that might push us into recession':

29 April

CNN host Brianna Keilar and Cato Institute economist Scott Lincicome on CNN on April 29, 2025 (Image: Screengrab via CNN / YouTube)

One economics expert is warning that the U.S. economy may dip into recession based on one key factor, and that it could happen as soon as this year.

During a Monday segment with CNN host Boris Sanchez, economics reporter Matt Egan remarked on how multiple business leaders fear a "self-fulfilling prophecy" that Americans — acting out of fear of a possible recession — hold back on spending and thus cause a recession by way of lackluster consumer activity in a consumption-based economy. Egan said the remarks came in response to a recent survey showing that roughly 70% of Americans expect a recession to happen later this year following President Donald Trump's imposition of new tariffs on virtually every trade partner in the world.

"One printing executive said that the trade policy from the administration is 'insanity' and it's 'causing chaos in the industry,'" Egan said. "Another executive from a machinery company expressed support for the tariffs, but said it's causing so much uncertainty that it's basically impossible right now to forecast anything."

Following Egan's segment, co-host Brianna Keilar interviewed Cato Institute vice president of economics Scott Lincicome. She began the interview by asking Lincicome his thoughts about the CEOs Egan interviewed worrying that a "self-fulfilling prophecy" could end up provoking an economic downturn. Keilar noted that consumer confidence is at lows not seen since the Covid-19 pandemic.

"I mean, when you have a U.S. economy that's driven in large part by consumer spending, if a lot of those same consumers stay home and don't spend, that's going to ripple throughout the economy," Lincicome said. "Whether it's enough to push us over the edge as it is a difficult thing to project. But look, you know, with companies also struggling from investment, uncertainty, from higher costs because of tariffs you know, these things can combine. And I think that's the more likely thing that that might push us into recession."

Keilar also asked Linciome about the report of Amazon mulling the idea of showing buyers the added cost of tariffs on its Amazon Haul platform (which is a competitor with bargain e-commerce sites like Temu and Shein). Lincicome responded that while it may be a "tough calculation for a giant retailer like Amazon," doing so would be a "fantastic idea" in terms of the level of transparency it provides to customers.

"The fact is that tariffs are taxes and they are typically paid by American companies and consumers," he said. "Any bit of sunlight that we can shed on that tax would be a good thing because typically tariffs are hidden. They're hidden in the supply chains. They're paid at the border. That's one reason why politicians like tariffs. They're a very seductive tool because consumers don't typically see them. So if we could shed some light on it, that'd be pretty great."

Watch the full segment below, or by clicking this link.

- YouTubewww.youtube.com

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