'He can only go down': New analysis explains the risk of Trump’s decision to skip out on debates

06 May 2023

Editor's note: This article has been updated to fix grammatical and stylistic errors.

A new analysis is explaining how former President Donald Trump's decision to skip early presidential debates could ultimately put his campaign at risk.

In a new piece published by The Hill, Brett Samuels pointed to Trump's recent social media posts which suggest he will likely forego participating in the upcoming debates.

“When you’re leading by seemingly insurmountable numbers, and you have hostile Networks with angry, TRUMP & MAGA hating anchors asking the ‘questions,’ why subject yourself to being libeled and abused?” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Although the strategy could prove to be beneficial for Trump, Samuels notes that the strategy is "not without risks."

"The first debate will take place in August and could provide a springboard for an alternative candidate who seizes the spotlight and marks a compelling case for the party to move on from Trump," Samuels wrote.

Samuels also shared remarks from David Urban, a former campaign advisor who worked for the former president's 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns.

“He thinks he has this insurmountable lead, and it’s to everyone else’s benefit, but not his, to show up at these debates,” said David Urban, who advised Trump’s 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns.

“I think the folks around him … would try to disabuse him of that notion, because if he’s not there on that stage, the other people on that stage will do nothing but whack on the person that’s not there,” Urban said. “And they’ll get to attack him and say things, and he won’t be able to respond.”

Pointing to the poll projections from last month, Samuels emphasized how such decisions could prove impactful given the margin between the former president and his political opponents.

"A Fox News poll released last month showed Trump leading his next closest potential competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), by 32 percentage points," he wrote. "A Reuters poll released last month showed Trump ahead by 26 percentage points, and an NBC News poll had Trump leading by 15 percentage points."

A former campaign advisor for Trump also offered a prediction of what could happen if Trump chooses not to attend.

“I don’t think he’s showing up,” the former campaign adviser said. “It only helps these people. There’s no reason for him to go. He’s not going to go up, he can only go down.”

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