Deep-red 'Republican stronghold' thought to be an 'easy win for Trump' is now a swing state

30 July 2024

Former President Donald Trump's path to winning a 270-vote Electoral College majority is now much harder with Vice President Kamala Harris' recent emergence as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Newsweek reported Tuesday that one recent poll conducted by the University of North Florida (UNF) Public Opinion Research Lab showed that Trump is currently ahead of Harris by seven points. But UNF political science professor Michael Binder, who is the poll's director, suggested that Harris may be at her floor, and Trump may be at his ceiling.

"It's not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020," Binder told the Palm Beach Post. "With Harris just entering the race, enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida."

Newsweek's Matthew Impelli observed that even though Florida swung from George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 to Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, it has since become a "Republican stronghold" after Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020. Florida's status as a competitive battleground was thought to be over after the Sunshine State reelected far-right Republican governor Ron DeSantis in a landslide in 2022, as well as sending Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) back to Washington for a third term that year.

But Florida being back in play in 2024 is significant, as its 30 electoral votes going to Democrats would mean that Harris has a much more varied path to 270. Democrats could theoretically lose Michigan and Wisconsin — two of the three so-called "blue wall" states — as well as other swing states like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and still win an electoral vote majority.

Florida's battleground status is exacerbated by the fact that in November, the Sunshine State will be voting on whether to protect abortion rights in their state constitution, along with the presidential election and a high-profile U.S. Senate race. Ohio, which is another swing state now firmly in Republican hands, nonetheless voted to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitution in 2023.

Before President Joe Biden announced his exit from the 2024 race, Florida was already showing signs of being more favorable for Democrats than previously imagined. A FOX 13/Insider Advantage poll from mid-July found that women voters in Florida were trending in favor of the Democratic ticket. And former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Florida), who is running against Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida) in November, is within striking distance of the GOP incumbent in the most recent polls aggregated by FiveThirtyEight.

Other states that were previously thought to be out of reach for Democrats with Biden at the top of the ticket are also now back in play. Pennsylvania was trending in Trump's favor prior to Harris becoming the presumptive nominee, and the vice president is now four points ahead of Trump in a Susquehanna poll conducted after Biden left the race. The vice president is also closing in on Trump's lead in Georgia, now just two points behind the 45th president of the United States in a late July poll of likely Peach State voters.

And in Arizona – which Biden narrowly won by roughly 11,000 votes in 2020 — Harris has also virtually erased Trump's lead. FiveThirtyEight shows that while Trump led Biden by five to seven points in most polls, Harris is now within the margin of error of the former president. Harris has yet to choose a running mate, and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Arizona), who defeated Republican challenger Blake Masters in 2022 by a comfortable margin, is thought to be on the shortlist of VP candidates.

Click here to read Newsweek's report in full.

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