U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the annual Thanksgiving turkey pardoning ceremony in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 25, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
Even though President Donald Trump has thoroughly dominated the Republican Party since his 2016 election victory, the GOP may finally walk away from him if they suffer major losses in next year's midterm elections.
That's according to conservative columnist Jonathan V. Last, who wrote in the Bulwark on Tuesday that the Republican Party's love devotion to Trump may finally end depending on the outcome of the 2026 elections. He wrote that while Trump briefly fell out of favor with Republicans after the January 6, 2021 insurrection, the party never seriously walked away from the president as it continued to entertain his election denialism and overwhelmingly backed his return to the White House in 2024.
Last pointed out that despite previous losses with Trump at the helm – like the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential election – the president still managed to further cement his grip on the party. However, with Republicans only holding a slim four-seat majority in the House of Representatives, and the GOP having lost by large margins in multiple states' off-year elections earlier this month, Last wrote that a stinging defeat for Republicans was very much in the cards next year. And should that happen, Last offered three scenarios.
First, the conservative writer acknowledged the possibility that Republicans still cling to Trump following a blowout loss in the midterms. He cited the previous 2018 example, but pointed out that the key difference in 2026 is that Trump is now a lame-duck president (despite his entertaining of an illegal and unconstitutional third term). He suggested that in 2027 and beyond, Trump may rely on "leaning into authoritarianism while juicing the economy" given that Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's term is due to expire and the president will have a "pliant chairman" to lead the Fed.
However, Last said "party functionaries" within the GOP could push Trump aside if Republicans lose the House of Representatives next year, akin to how Democratic Party leaders forced President Joe Biden into retirement after his June 2024 debate with Trump. He posited that Vice President JD Vance could form a 2028 exploratory committee, Cabinet members quit the administration and oppose Trump from the right or the GOP's next minority leader could pin the blame for the party's losses on Trump.
A third scenario last predicted was Trump having a "health event" that would lead to the president being "gracefully ushered off stage" by party leadership, and said this would likely be "what every Republican not related to Trump by blood is secretly hoping for."
"This is a potential danger for all mafia dons and strongmen, which is why they tend to surround themselves in their later years with the people most likely to remain loyal in all circumstances. (Translation: family.)," Last wrote. "My point in all of this is to try to convince you that change is coming."