'We’re very close': Almost two-thirds of CEOs fear a recession by this fall

14 April

Austan Goolsbee, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, speaks to the Economic Club of New York in New York City, U.S., April 10, 2025. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

A wide majority of America's top business executives are now already preparing for a recession later this year, according to a new poll.

NBC News reported Monday that 62% of roughly 300 American CEOs polled in April believe that because of President Donald Trump's trade war, the U.S. economy could be in an official recession in the next six months. That's a significant increase from March's survey, in which 48% of CEOs feared a recession in 2025.

CEOs fear that because prices will naturally go up in response to businesses passing on the cost of new import duties to customers in the form of higher prices, consumer spending will contract and economic growth will falter. And because economists typically consider an economy to be in a recession when there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the U.S. could be in an official recession by the start of third quarter this summer.

The responses come from the monthly Chief Executive poll, which has been conducted every month since 2002, and asks CEOs various questions about how they view the economy and the general business climate in the United States. NBC reported that April's survey marked the most pessimistic view of business conditions a year out since 2012. Overall confidence in the business climate has reportedly dropped by 29% since 2024.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently told CNBC that he believes the U.S. economy is already in negative territory.

"I think we’re very close, if not in, a recession now," Fink said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicted earlier this month that it estimated GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025 (which ended on March 31) to be -2.8%. Economists noted that the economy appeared to be in a "stagflationary" period, which is characterized by high inflation, high unemployment rates and sluggish GDP growth. Real numbers have not yet been released, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis expected to reveal its quarterly GDP growth figures by the end of the month.

Click here to read NBC's report in full.

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