Why the Rust Belt may be Biden’s best reelection hope against Trump: report

01 May 2024

Stuart Stevens, a Never Trumper and veteran conservative strategist/consultant, has predicted that incumbent President Joe Biden will enjoy a major surge in support as November draws closer. In Steven's view, support for Biden will soar when voters realize just how dangerous presumptive 2024 GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump is.

But so far, this is shaping up to a close election. Some polls released in late April showed Trump with small leads; others showed Biden slightly ahead. A Morning Consult poll released on April 29 found the race to be a dead heat.

In 2020, Biden flipped five states that Trump had carried in 2016 — three in the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) and two in the Sun Belt (Arizona and Georgia). Journalist Steven Shepard, in an article published by Politico on May 1, stresses that the Rust Belt is crucial to Biden's reelection hopes.

"Joe Biden's path to reelection has become increasingly clear: It's the Rust Belt or bust," Shepard explains. "The alternative route to the White House he appeared to break open in 2020 — winning Arizona and Georgia on the strength of changing Sun Belt demographics — would be far more challenging this time."

Shepard adds, "While polls broadly show Biden continuing to fall behind former President Donald Trump in swing states across the country, they consistently show the older, whiter states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the most competitive for Biden. Trump has larger leads in the Sun Belt states, in large part owing to Biden's loss of support with younger voters and voters of color."

In late April, polls conducted by The Hill and Emerson College showed Trump ahead of Biden by 2 percent in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and 1 percent in Michigan compared to 4 percent in Arizona.

Shepard notes that Biden "can win" in November if he "holds all three Blue Wall states" — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and "captures at least four electoral votes from Maine and Nebraska." But the Politico journalist emphasizes that for Biden, there is a "clear divide between the Blue Wall states" and "the Sun Belt states."

"Biden isn't yet writing off the Sun Belt," Shepard reports. "His campaign continues to advertise in the same core, seven states it's targeted for months: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."

Read Politico's full report at this link.

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