Biden 'heavily' investing in these 3 states that are 'key to the whole election': analysis

16 May 2024

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump's path to 270 electoral votes this November will go through a handful of states whose Electoral College votes are the most highly coveted. And Biden's campaign has identified the three that will receive a bulk of their time, money and attention over the next six months.

According to a Thursday report in the Wall Street Journal, Biden's campaign is investing "heavily" in the so-called "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which could deliver the presidency for him if he also takes Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. The Journal's Ken Thomas and Catherine Lucey wrote that without those three states — which they described as "key to the whole election" — Biden's path to 270 gets much harder, as it relies on beating Trump in more difficult swing states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.

“The Blue Wall is the path of least resistance to 270,” American Bridge super PAC co-founder Bradley Beychok told the Journal. He said that even though his group is spending $140 million on ads targeting women voters in those states, the Blue Wall is "not the only path."

Those three states, which have 44 combined Electoral College votes between them, earned their name as they reliably voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 1992 with the exception of 2016. That year, Trump won the Blue Wall with just over 77,000 more combined votes than Hillary Clinton across the three states.

While Clinton never personally set foot in the Badger State in 2016, Biden isn't taking Wisconsin for granted. Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wisconsin), who represents the Democratic stronghold of Madison, said Biden "certainly is showing up a lot" but cautioned that he has more work to do if he hopes to win Wisconsin's 10 Electoral College votes.

"[There are] still some headwinds around cost of living," Pocan told the Journal. "There’s some specific headwinds around the war in the Middle East, specifically, on conditions in Gaza."

Perhaps the most important state of the three is Pennsylvania. One unnamed Democratic official hailing from the Keystone State told the Journal that it would be "impossible" for Biden to get to 270 electoral votes without his state's 19. Biden reportedly confided to Philadelphia Democratic Party chairman Bob Brady that he feels optimistic about his chances in his home state because "I have all these offices in Pennsylvania and Trump doesn’t even have one."

To notch a win in Pennsylvania, the Biden campaign is counting on the public support of Governor Josh Shapiro (D), the popular former attorney general who defeated Trump-supporting election denier Doug Mastriano in 2022. Another governor he's counting on for swing state voter turnout is Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic governor of Michigan. Whitmer, who won a second term in 2022, is seen as instrumental to a Biden victory by a former Democratic congressman from the Mitten State.

“I think if [Biden] wins Michigan, he has to thank Gov. Whitmer for that,” longtime former Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Michigan told Journal). “My hope and my belief is that she will get the party faithful to come back home.”

Each campaign's respective war chest may make the critical difference down the stretch. Biden is far ahead of Trump in the money race, with $71 million in cash on hand after raising nearly $129 million so far, while Trump has just $33 million on hand out of $96 million raised.

Click here to read the Journal's report in its entirety (subscription required).

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