Biden’s 'downward spiral' in polls makes Trump appear more electable: columnist

14 December 2023

A conservative columnist recently wrote that while former President Donald Trump's 91 felony indictments in three different jurisdictions might make him appear to be a risky candidate to nominate in the general election, President Joe Biden's poor poll numbers are proving otherwise.

In a Thursday essay for Politico, Rich Lowry — editor in chief of the conservative National Review — opined that with Trump beating Biden consistently in both national polls and swing state polls, the chief argument against Trump has effectively "evaporated." He added that other Republican candidates vying for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination have little ground to stand on, as any claims of Trump not having an "electability" advantage are undermined by Trump's strong performance among top pollsters.

"The electability argument also had the advantage of side-stepping any of the issues about Trump that most Republicans don’t want to hear. Saying he can’t win isn’t a critique of him personally or anything he wants to do. It’s a practical claim, not a moral one. And it can be offered more in a tone of sorrow than anger," Lowry wrote. "The problem is that the polling hasn’t cooperated, thanks to Biden’s downward spiral."

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Lowry's argument is hard to dispute: On Thursday, a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of voters in multiple battleground states found that Trump was beating Biden by anywhere from two to nine percentage points in seven swing states. Those states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — have 93 electoral votes between them, and will almost certainly decide the winner of the 2024 general election. Trump outpacing both the GOP field of primary candidates along with President Biden suggests that in spite of having to endure four criminal trials next year, the 45th president of the United States is still very much an electable candidate.

In his essay, Lowry suggested that Democrats shouldn't be so quick to dismiss Trump's high poll numbers, as the former president never once led in 2020 polls, and that he's leading now in not just conservative leaning polls, but also among highly established and credible polling organizations as well.

"In 2016, Trump was often reduced to citing Drudge polls and other dubious sources to try to demonstrate what he’s always maintained is his overwhelming public support. This time around, he can cite the most reputable polls in the business," Lowry wrote. "The Biden collapse is nearly comprehensive. He is losing in ballot tests to Trump, his approval rating is scraping bottom, he’s trailing on almost every top issue, and super-majorities think he’s too old to serve again. He is the weakest incumbent since Jimmy Carter or George H.W. Bush."

Biden's lone saving grace may be Trump's alleged crimes. Special counsel Jack Smith will be the first prosecutor to take Trump to trial on March 4, when he will attempt to convince a jury that the former president is guilty of attempting to interfere with Congress' certification of the 2020 Electoral College count. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from August found that more than half of Republicans would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony.

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