Major battleground state tallies 4 million ballots cast in unprecedented early vote turnout

02 November 2024

So far, more than 68 million Americans have already voted in the 2024 election, which is roughly 43% of the total 2020 electorate. but turnout is at roughly 80% of 2020 levels in one of the most important battleground states.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Saturday that after early voting in Georgia officially concluded, approximately four million ballots have already been cast. That's not too far off from the 2020 total of 4.93 million ballots cast in the Peach State in the last election. No ballots will be counted until Tuesday, but there are several metrics that are favorable for Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to the outlet, turnout among women voters has exceeded male turnout during Georgia' early voting period, with female voters making up 56% of the early vote total. That roughly mirrors the gender breakdown of voters' preferences, with a CBS News/YouGov poll in late October finding that 55% of women voters support Harris, with 43% of women backing former President Donald Trump. Assuming Harris is similarly popular with women voters in Georgia, it could be key to her potential victory there next week.

However, early vote totals could also be interpreted as positive for Trump, as white voters made up approximately 58% of Georgia's early vote total. And only 26% of early voters in Georgia were Black, compared to 30% in 2020. But the make-or-break demographic for determining which candidate ultimately adds the Peach State to their respective win column could be older voters.

The Journal-Constitution reported that older voters (typically considered 55 and up) accounted for 58% of Georgians who voted early. While the older demographic has typically been seen as Republican-leaning, Harris has been polling unusually high with older Americans aged 65 and up.

According to the New Republic, President Joe Biden fared better among that bloc than previous Democratic nominees Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, who both lost the retiree vote to Republicans by nine points and six points, respectively. Trump edged out Biden among seniors by just three points, though Biden's strength with that group may have been what gave him the critical edge in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, which he won by fewer than 50,000 votes collectively.

Harris is doing even better among the 65+ cohort than Biden, and Cook Political Report recently found she's now trailing Trump among voters aged 65 and up by just 1.4 percentage points. By driving a wedge into the demographic that's been reliably Republican for decades, Harris may have a broad enough coalition to defeat Trump in the seven battleground states likely to decide the Electoral College majority.

Harris is also faring well among young voters between the ages of 18 and 34, beating Trump by a 20-point margin. Meanwhile, roughly 834,000 of Georgia's early voters were first-time voters, which the Journal-Constitution wrote was made up of new Peach State residents as well as voters who were too young to vote in previous elections.

Plenty of early voters showed up in deep-blue Democratic strongholds like Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett counties. The outlet reported that more than 439,000 residents of Fulton County (which houses Atlanta) have already voted early. 2020 turnout in Fulton County was just over 517,000 total votes between Biden and Trump, with Biden overwhelmingly defeating Trump by 46 points.

Click here to read the Journal-Constitution's report in its entirety (subscription required).

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