Why 'a capable Ukrainian military enhances NATO’s security': expert

05 July 2023

Ukraine has long sought to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has been supplying the war-torn nation with defensive military equipment to fight off Russian President Vladimir Putin's troops.

On Wednesday, senior fellow Eric Ciaramella of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace explained in a Washington Post editorial that there are alternative avenues through which Ukraine could benefit from being NATO-adjacent.

"At next week's summit of NATO leaders in Vilnius, Lithuania, the allies appear prepared to outline a preliminary vision for Ukraine's future role in European security, which has been reshaped by Russia's war of aggression," Ciaramella wrote, noting that although accession "does not appear to be in the offing, this disappointment should not be cause for despair. Framing Ukraine's long-term security solely around the rigid binary of NATO membership is unnecessary at this stage in the war. It would set unrealistic expectations for what is possible in the near term and put both Ukraine and NATO in an avoidable bind."

But due to Putin's multiple illegal annexations, invasion, and occupation of Ukrainian territory admission to the alliance remains out of reach, in part because Article V of NATO's charter considers an attack on one member state as an attack on all of the allies. If Ukraine were to be admitted under these conditions, NATO would likely be thrust into a direct conflict with nuclear-armed Russia.

"Worse," Ciaramella opined, "the debate sends a dangerous message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine is up for grabs so long as it remains outside the alliance. The option being considered ahead of next week's summit does an end-run around this impasse. Western leaders are drafting a set of formal commitments to Ukraine's self-defense, modeled after what the United States has done for Israel since the 1970s. These pledges would ensure the Ukrainian armed forces' ability to defend their country and rearm after high-intensity combat ends."

Ciaramella urged President Joe Biden to "be ambitious with this plan" and "broker an agreement that would provide the strategic framework for concrete multiyear funding pledges by each signatory." Once the West begins "equipping Ukraine with superior technology and intelligence, as well as capabilities to match or negate the obvious advantages that come with Russia's size," Ciaramella continued, "A capable Ukrainian military enhances NATO's security, too. Pentagon planners have long fretted about how to defend the alliance's Eastern flank from a Russian attack without stationing hundreds of thousands of US troops in Europe, as was the case during the Cold War. Ukraine's military is tying down significant Russian manpower and resources near Russia's southwestern border, blunting the conventional threat Moscow could conceivably pose to NATO allies. The United States should double down on this strategy, recognizing the pivotal role that a strong Ukraine can play in the security of Central and Eastern Europe."

Ciaramella added that "a formal Western commitment to Ukraine's long-term capabilities could help shorten the war and bring about a just and lasting peace more quickly," thusly concluding that "this arrangement need not — and should not — be an alternative to eventual NATO membership."

Ciaramella's analysis is available at this link (subscription required).

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