Trump's failure to grasp 'math' makes his latest proposal 'very unlikely' to pass: report

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One on his return from a state visit in Britain, September 18, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

President Donald Trump has teased the idea of giving Americans money back after they paid hefty prices on tariffs in 2025.

Trump has maintained that Americans wouldn't be the ones to pay tariffs, it's other countries that pay them, according to University of Michigan economics and public policy Professor Justin Wolfers. The call for the checks appeared to admit that claim wasn't entirely accurate when he promised to give Americans a reimbursement.

“We’ve taken in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff money. We’re going to be issuing dividends … probably the middle of next year, a little bit later than that, of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income,” Trump said on Monday about his new tax.

But CNN senior reporter Matt Egan cautioned Wednesday that it likely wasn't going to happen due to faulty "math." Egan reminded viewers that Trump's promise would require an act of Congress.

While Trump makes it sound like a "done deal," Egan said, "I've got to tell you, at this point in time, it looks very unlikely that these checks actually get sent out. There's major obstacles here, perhaps insurmountable ones, starting with the math."

Egan estimated the cost of giving a $2,000 check to low-income and middle-class Americans would cost about $280 billion at the low end, according to the Tax Foundation.

"Not only is that a lot of money, it's a lot more money than the president's tariffs are estimated to bring in next year, which is a little over $200 billion. But if the checks are structured more generously to really go out to more people, then you could be looking at an even bigger cost of $600 billion," Egan continued. "That would be more than this year's new tariff revenue and next year's combined."

Trump claimed Tuesday that he scored $21 trillion in "commitments" and has brought in almost $18 trillion in investments in the U.S. The national debt clock hasn't moved, however.

The political obstacles deal with the fact that the president can't unilaterally start handing out money without a bill approved by the House and Senate. Given so many Republicans oppose deficit spending, it makes it unlikely that such a stimulus would pass, reported Bloomberg on Wednesday.

"Especially because Republicans have just spent years criticizing [Former President Joe] Biden's stimulus checks for high inflation, even though that was only part of the story," Egan said, recalling the checks were for the COVID-19 crisis.

Meanwhile, economists said that such a check would be inflationary by boosting demand and not supply.

"Stephen Moore, the former Trump economic adviser, told me that sending out checks to people is a bad way to stimulate the economy," Egan noted.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was asked by Fox's Bret Baier whether the checks would be inflationary. He responded, "Maybe we could persuade Americans to save that.”

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