comments_image Comments

Kagan has anemic confirmation numbers

So far, Gallup, Fox, Pew, and Rasmussen have released polling on whether the public thinks Elana Kagan should be confirmed or not.  Compared to polling from these same four outlets at the same point in the Alito and Sotomayor confirmation process, Kagan lags behind (see Miers, Alito, Sotomayor, and Kagan for the Rasmussen polls, and here for all other polls).

Sotomayor: +18.2% (mid-June 2009)

Alito: +12.3% (mid-December 2005)

Kagan: +9.0%

Miers: +1.5 (late-October 2005)

Kagan has a net positive "confirm" of 9%.  While that puts her well clear of the failed nomination of Harriet Miers, that is half of what Sonia Sotomayor had in mid-June of 2009 according to these four polling firms, and even less than Samuel Alito's numbers in mid-December of 2005.

While it still seems likely that Kagan will be confirmed, her numbers are low enough that a bad revelation or two might cause real problems.  Even absent such a moment, the general lack of strong feeling on the nomination (another area where Rasmussen is an hysterical outlier, incidentally) means that there will be little political cost to Senators no matter how they vote.  There is not much public engagement on this fight, leaving this nomination a largely internal affair for the Senate.

Today's Top Stories