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Hillary 2016 and the Mark Penn Test

Hillary Clinton made her first public speech since leaving the State Department last night, addressing the Vital Global Leadership Awards at the Kennedy Center. She did not say she is running for president in 2016. But this week at least she seems very much like she is. A super PAC staffed in part with former Clinton campaign aides is up and running and sending out press releases. Clinton made a show of support for gay marriage in an HRC video, and will make a whole host of speeches at venues across the country over the next few months. (She's on the lucrative private speaking circuit as well.)

There is a series of cliched caveats you have to get through when you write about this stuff: 2016 is a long ways away. Making predictions is an invitation to mockery in a few years time. At this point in 2006, the 2008 election was supposedly going to pit Mark Warner against George Allen.

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