Wisconsin’s Milwaukee suburbs could be a problem for Trump in 2020 — here's why

Much has been written about how a strong turnout in the Philadelphia suburbs — which have become more Democrat-friendly than they were in the past — could help swing Pennsylvania to a Democratic presidential nominee in 2020. But in the American Rust Belt, that battle for the suburbs is hardly limited to the Greater Philadelphia Area — and a report by Natasha Korecki for Politico outlines just how much of a battleground the Milwaukee suburbs are shaping up to be in next year’s presidential election.

President Donald Trump’s Rust Belt victory in Ohio in 2016 wasn’t especially surprising in light of how much of a swing state Ohio had been: the Buckeye State had favored President George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 and President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. But Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan had been going Democratic in post-1980s presidential elections, and the fact that Trump managed to win all of them was a shocker. Korecki, in her report, stresses that Democrats are determined to not lose Wisconsin again — which means very aggressive campaigning in the Milwaukee suburbs.

During the 2016 election, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton never foot in Wisconsin. But Brandon Scholz, former executive director of the Wisconsin Republican Party, acknowledged that Democrats won’t be making that mistake next year.

“For the president to win Wisconsin again, he’s not going to have the free ride he had last time,” Scholz told Politico. “He’s not going to have Hillary Clinton sitting on her hands. He’s going to have a completely engaged opposition party on the ground.”

Clinton was the first Democratic presidential nominee to lose Wisconsin since Walter Mondale in 1984. And while Trump’s victory in Wisconsin was a narrow one, it was still historic in light of how well Democrats had been performing there in past presidential elections.

Trump’s strongest support in Wisconsin is in the state’s rural countries, while his weakest is in Milwaukee Proper and Madison. Clinton underperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs in 2016, but Matt Lowe (chairman of the Waukesha County Democratic Party in the Milwaukee Area) is optimistic about 2020.

“I know if we get 40%, we almost guarantee a Democrat a victory statewide,” Lowe told Politico. “We’re seeing so many volunteers every day that I don’t think 40% is a total pipe dream.”

Korecki reports that there are some troubling signs for Trump in the Milwaukee suburbs. Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, a Republican who has been in the U.S. House of Representatives since 1979, has decided not to seek reelection in 2020 — and Aaron Perry, a Waukesha alderman, became so fed up with Trump that he switched from Republican to Democrat in June.

Perry told Politico, “There comes a point where everybody has their own threshold of how much they can take. We’re getting to the point now where there’s no way he’s gaining supporters. The only way for Trump to go is down.”