Why would Trump go to New Mexico? Look lower on the ballot

Former President Donald Trump’s plane will touch down in Albuquerque tomorrow.

If you’re wondering why he would spend precious hours this close to Election Day in a state he lost by 100,000 votes four years ago, you might find an answer elsewhere on your ballot, according to an educated guess from a political science professor from the University of New Mexico.

In particular, in the race for New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District between incumbent U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat, and Republican Yvette Herrell. It’s one of the closest House races in the United States, and the battle to control the chamber could come down to one or two seats, according to recent projections.

Considering how important the House would be to Trump’s second-term agenda, the fact that New Mexico is a border state, and that Trump was on his way to Nevada, anyway, and it “makes a lot of sense” that he would stop here, said Michael Rocca, a UNM political science professor.

Using a brief visit to potentially flip the 2nd District seat to Republicans is definitely worth his while, he said. Most congressional elections observers consider the district to be leaning toward Vasquez, and recent local polls have found Vasquez with an edge. But it’s still close.

“And so any little bit, any last push for momentum” will help, Rocca said

In an emailed statement, Herrell told Source New Mexico that she would speak at the rally and that she expects his visit to “boost enthusiasm and turnout” for her campaign.

“President Trump visiting New Mexico in the final week of this election shows he values our state and understands our importance. I’m honored to be speaking at the rally, and look forward to hearing President Trump share his plan to secure the border, bring down the cost of living, and protect our rights as Americans,” she said.

At the same time he’s here to boost turnout for Herrell and Republican Senate candidate Nella Domenici, Trump could also simultaneously use New Mexico as a platform to talk about key issues he’s raised throughout the race, Rocca said.

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Trump’s campaign, in a news release announcing his visit, mentioned inflation, regulations on oil and gas, and the border as issues New Mexicans care about and failures by President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Since New Mexico is about 50% Hispanic and shares a border with Mexico, “I think he could use that message here in New Mexico, with a heavy Hispanic population, to play well in the rest of the country,” Rocca said.

A visit to Bernalillo County, which Joe Biden won by 85,000 votes in 2020, also makes a little more sense, Rocca said, given recent redistricting of the 2nd Congressional District. The district historically covered southern New Mexico, but Albuquerque’s South Valley was looped in beginning in the 2022 election.

In 2022, a little more than 25% of the roughly 192,000 votes cast for the 2nd Congressional District race came from Bernalillo County.

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Democratic candidates have denounced the visit, accusing the former president of planting the seeds for a backlash from his base when he eventually loses.

“Why is Trump campaigning in NYC and Albuquerque? Because he’s NOT campaigning,” U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich’s campaign posted on X on Monday afternoon. “He knows he’s losing. These are Insurrection 2.0 rallies. He’s pumping up his supporters for denial and violence.”

The Trump campaign has also failed to get approval for the rally at venues overseen by Democrat elected officials. According to the Albuquerque Journal, the Trump campaign tried to hold its rally at the Albuquerque Convention Center, only to be denied by the center’s general manager who said the center’s water line needed repairs this week.

Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller, a Democrat, told the news outlet that he supports the “business decisions” it makes about bookings. Keller’s office has also previously billed the Trump campaign for expenses more than $200,000 in expenses he said the city incurred when Trump held a rally in Rio Rancho and stayed in Albuquerque for a night, according to the Journal.

And on Tuesday afternoon, Republicans announced on social media that Stephanie Garcia Richard, the Democratic state land commissioner, had overruled a signed lease agreement that would have allowed rallygoers to park at the Isleta Amphitheater before being shuttled to CSI Aviations, the private airline company nearby where the rally is being held.

State Land Office spokesperson Joey Keefe told Source New Mexico on Tuesday evening that, under the terms of a “sublease” he provided between venue operator Live Nation and Bernalillo County, only events at the amphitheater can legally lease the parking lot. Because the rally is offsite, the parking lot can’t legally be used, he said.

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The State Land Office is not in the practice of allowing state land to be used for a political rally of any stripe, he said. Exceptions to the lease agreement would need to be considered and planned, potentially “months in advance,” he said.

In 2021, the office, which leases state property for revenue for schools, hospitals and universities, entered into a 40-year lease agreement with Bernalillo County as part of the Mesa Del Sol development. The lease agreement covered the amphitheater and a recreational facility, with more projects planned.

It’s up to the Land Office to enforce the terms of the lease and subleases, Keefe said. On Tuesday afternoon, the office informed Live Nation that it could not legally use its parking lot to stage Trump rally-goers.

The move incensed Republicans, particularly state Rep. Jim Townsend (R-Artesia) who accused Garcia Richard of “sheer, naked bitter partisanship” in a social media post. He urged Republican voters to call Richard’s office and “demand that she stop misusing her office for the sake of naked political power.”

Keefe said Tuesday night the office hadn’t received a deluge of calls, though he noted the office only “found out about this today.”

“I don’t know want to speculate, but I don’t think we’ve seen much yet, for that reason,” he said.

Live Nation did not respond to a request for comment Tuesday night.

‘Wishful thinking’ that Trump would win NM

One thing Rocca thinks is “highly unlikely,” given the state of the race, is that Trump would actually win New Mexico. He’s basing that on public polls and trends here over the last 10 to 15 years.

“It’s an uphill battle here and, to some extent, some wishful thinking,” he said.

But Trump and other local Republicans say the state is in play.

“If our voters continue to turn out strongly, President Trump absolutely has a shot to win New Mexico,” Herrell said in her statement to Source New Mexico.

A recent Albuquerque Journal poll, which surveyed more than 1,000 likely voters, had Harris beating Trump in New Mexico handily, and the average of polls from FiveThirtyEight has shown her with a steady 7- to 8-point lead over Trump in the state since mid-September.

Still, a poll published Oct. 22 by “KA Consulting” that was touted by some conservative news outlets, including the local Piñon Post, showed Harris with only a 3-point lead, which was in the margin of error.

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KA Consulting is run by Kellyanne Conway, a former adviser and spokesperson for Trump during his first term.

According to those news organizations’ summaries, the poll reached 612 likely voters between Oct. 16 and 18 and also made some assumptions in Trump’s favor about the impact of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., endorsing Trump and how increasing support for Trump among Hispanics would translate to New Mexico.

Last week, New Mexico Rep. Stefani Lord (R-Sandia Park), went on Newsmax, along with a pollster from Rasmussen Reports, to talk up her party’s chances of New Mexico going for a Republican for the first time since 2004.

“What I’m hearing in New Mexico is a lot of people that were not going to support Trump previously are totally on board with him. I’m talking about our Hispanic voters. He’s more appealing. Our moderate Democrats. Even Republicans who didn’t care for him before,” she said.

Lord did not respond to a request for comment from Source New Mexico on Tuesday afternoon.

Rocca said the Republicans who are predicting a Trump win may also just be using “strategic rhetoric” to not appear to write off any state as unwinnable. Still, he thinks odds are slim that Trump would win New Mexico.

“I could be wrong. This could be the ultimate surprise in the state, absolutely, we were once a red state. We were once a battleground state. It wasn’t too long ago,” he said. “So those votes might be out there.”

Source New Mexico is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Source New Mexico maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Shaun Griswold for questions: info@sourcenm.com. Follow Source New Mexico on Facebook and X.