Donald Trump
Maybe the world's major conflicts remain too fluid to draw hope towards ending anytime soon, but it's not too soon to conclude that all of Donald Trump's bluster about being the king of peace are overblown.
Indeed, his insistence that only he can settle years-long conflicts in Europe and the Middle East may just be making them worse.
The Nobel Peace Prize judges may want to hold off on any invitation to Oslo. Donald Trump the Peacemaker cannot settle the Russia-Ukraine war in a single day, as he had boasted many times, or in a single month or single year. Nor the Israel-Hamas war. Nor the nuclear threat from Iran or the various economic and intelligence threats from China or North Korea.
Trump's phone calls with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday did not move those parties towards ceasefire. If anything, over the weekend, Russia hit Kiev and other cities with the largest drone attacks to date.
Trump's apparent petulance that his word alone does not prompt immediate cessation of combat and the bombing of Ukraine's civilian population only presage his own disengagement, suggesting that new Pope Leo XIV take the lead mediation role.
Trump is not even making clear whether by threatening to step back, he will seek to withhold U.S. weapons and intelligence again from the Ukrainians; signals were that he would refuse to join European leaders in a new round of economic sanctions against Russia to focus attention on peace efforts, instead expressing hope for big trade with Russia at some point. Zelenskyy continues to offer intermediate ceasefires but to reject land losses to the invading Russians; the Russians are insisting that they are open to ceasefires only if it gives them exactly what they would take by military means.
How is this stand-back Trump helping anyone in the conflict or America's strategic interests?
The Middle East
Nor is Peacemaker Trump proving successful as intervenor and would-be solver of the Israel-Hamas war.
Instead, we see story after story about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu feeling ignored by a frustrated Trump in decisions affecting the region and the renewed air and ground war destruction of Gaza recast as permanent occupation by Israel with evident starvation of its Palestinian population.
Even in the face of continuing pleas from Israelis to focus on retrieval of Oct. 7. 2023 hostages, Israel's right-leaning government insists on crushing an uninhabitable Gaza to kill remaining Hamas fighters. European allies are openly breaking with Israel over its announced re-occupation plans for Gaza. This week, there were reports of the death of Muhammad Sinwar, brother and successor to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
Trump has come up with another version of his plan to ship out a million Palestinians, this time to Libya, the same place our own State Department warns is too dangerous for Americans to travel. This week, Trump broke his own general silence about the Israeli ban on humanitarian aid trucks, which Israel lifted a bit for the first time in three months.
Meanwhile, Trump made direct contact with Hamas for release of an American hostage and summarily called off seven weeks of intense, if questionably effective bombing of Houthi rebels in Yemen without consulting with Netanyahu or fully stopping Houthi threats. Trump is offering simultaneous threats and settlement talks with Iran about nuclear weapons development, again without apparent partnership with Netanyahu.
Trump's trip to the Gulf nations where his own family is doing business deals did not include a stop in Israel to meet with the ally Trump has identified over and over as his closest. Indeed, the biggest story from the region was about the "gift" of a $400 million, luxurious, Qatari royal 747 jet for Trump's use now as Air Force One and later as a personal toy -- and even that, The New York Times tells us, came about because Trump inquired about its availability.
In the crazy everything-is-politics mode, it turns out that Trump's runaway campaign conflating anti-Zionist land expansion with anti-Semitism, is playing out a Heritage Foundation plan to use the Israel issue as a weapon against domestic liberals. Even peace in the Middle East is dependent on Trump politics.
And in the world of politics, Trump showed again yesterday, his word alone was insufficient to bring together even arguing factions within the House Republicans who were still working over how much to cut from federal spending after an overnight Rules Committee session. Trump, who may a strong urge to bully, lacks a persuasion gene to overcome new Congressional Budget Office reports that his proposals would boost U.S. debt substantially.
The takeaway: Trump is so concerned about Trump's centrality to any ceasefire efforts and his insistence on immediacy that he seems to be ignoring the idea that the conflict is continuing -- and worsening.
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