Wall St. CEOs betting on Trump victory — but stock market may favor Harris

31 October 2024

On Wall Street, many executives and traders have been betting on Donald Trump pulling off a narrow victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Both national and battleground states polls, only five days before the election, continue to show an incredibly tight race that quite a few pollsters consider a toss-up.

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller recently told Bloomberg TV that "the inside of the market is very convinced Trump is going to win."

But according to Politico's Declan Harty, the stock market "may be telling a different story" from what Wall Street CEOs and traders have been saying about the race's ultimate outcome.

"U.S. stocks have been on a tear, with the bellwether S&P 500 index climbing more than 10 percent since August," Harty explains in an article published on Halloween 2024. "While the stock market is not necessarily representative of the broader economy, the S&P 500's performance in the run-up to Election Day has historically been a strong indicator of whether the incumbent party's candidate will retain control of the White House — correctly forecasting all but four presidential races over the last 96 years. If the index is falling, the theory goes, investors are bracing for more uncertainty from a new administration."

Harty continues, "But a climb in the S&P 500 signals that the market is expecting the current president's party to win. And the index's recent rise is suggesting that Vice President Kamala Harris, who took over the Democratic ticket from President Joe Biden this summer, could be bound for victory."

Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, believes that the stock market is "making a call for Harris to win."

Turnquist told Politico, "When there's more certainty about the incumbent party winning the White House, we know for the most part the policies they've (installed). There's just a level of comfort that the market has with that certainty."

Read Politico's full article at this link.

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