Republicans are warning any GOP candidates looking to run in the 2028 presidential election to keep their expectations low, arguing they should instead focus on the 2032 race. The sentiment is that the current political landscape is already too tainted for the party to expect a win in 2028. The GOP defeat during the 2026 midterm elections worsened things for them, and President Donald Trump losing a large portion of his supporters also didn’t help.
“How can a candidate run in 2028 when they have to criticize the policies of a sitting president with a large amount of sway with the Republican base?” said one GOP source in a conversation with The Hill. “It’s a suicide mission.”
“Unless there is a major shift in the direction of the country, where we end the war in Iran, reduce the cost of gas and groceries, and voters feel the White House is focused on their needs, I’m not sure any credible Republican candidate will run in 2028,” the source added. “There is a strong feeling that the best chance a Republican has to win is in 2032 after these problems can be addressed and Trump is no longer a factor.”
Even Vice President J.D. Vance and his team are reportedly rethinking whether he should consider running in 2028. “It may not be his time,” one former Trump aide told the outlet. “It’s going to be a tough time for any Republican to run for president in 2028 based on what happened last week.”
At this point, insiders say the future of Vance’s political career is murky. Veteran GOP strategist Susan Del Percio said there are other Republicans hesitant to step into the forefront, which further hurts the party’s chances. “Trump will be the downfall of any 2028 nominee because they have to be 100 percent MAGA, and pass the MAGA loyalty test, and no one can do that because you don’t know what the president will be for or against at any given moment,” Del Percio said. “We talk about how Trump’s numbers can’t get any worse. But they can. This is only the beginning.”
Trump has not endorsed Vance or any potential candidate. Vance was recently reassigned a new role after the continued fallout from the war in Iran. “The best scenario for JD Vance is to say he’s not running because he does not have the president’s endorsement,” she said. “If that’s the case, it allows him to bow out gracefully.”
Other Republican strategists say GOP is ill-prepared to concede the next presidential election. The hope is that Democrats make mistakes as they take over Congress, resulting in internal turmoil within the party to give the GOP a leg up.
With so many historically red states flipping, there’s still some optimism within the GOP, but they realize it takes strategy and 2028 is too close to change minds. “Everybody is still in the fog of defeat, but no one is confident that 2028 is going to be appreciably better,” one Republican consultant who worked on midterm races said. “We’re gonna play, we’re gonna spend a ton of money, and we’re going to do better than we did because it was so bad this time. But as far as flipping these institutions and winning the White House, no one thinks that’s in the cards for 2028.”