Aftyn Behn, Image via NewsChannel5 / Screengrab
Democrats have mobilized around Tennessee State Rep. Aftyn Behn's campaign for Congress in a deep red district, and now Republicans are "desperate" to stop her from overperforming, a Democratic strategist told The Guardian.
Behn is a Democrat running to fill the vacant seat in Congress representing Tennessee's 7th District, facing off in a special election against Republican Matt Van Epps, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump. Van Epps has long been tipped for the win, given that the district is strongly Republican, having swung for Trump by 22 points in 2024.
However, growing national discontent over Trump's second term in office, particularly his handling of the economy, has helped boost the performance of Democrats in recent races all over the country, and the party now sees races like Behn's as potentially winnable, causing a wave of resources and support to flow into her campaign. In the last week, a poll of likely voters in the district shocked observers, putting Behn behind Van Epps by only 2 points. Leading Democrats reportedly believe that even a close single-digit loss in the special election will send a message about voter revolt against Trump and his agenda.
This shock has seemingly galvanized national Republican leaders, concerned about the possibility of their majority in the House shrinking even more than it already has. Trump has taken to social media with calls for Tennessee voters to support Van Epps.
Speaking with the Guardian about the race, an anonymous Democratic strategist with experience in House races said that the GOP is pouring resources into the race “in a desperate last-minute attempt to avoid a Democratic overperformance.”
“Republicans are going to lose the House majority next year not just because of traditional ‘swing’ districts, [but also] because their agenda is historically unpopular even in deep Trump country,” the strategist said.
Writing for MS NOW, political columnist Michael A. Cohen said that the race ought to have been "a cakewalk" for Republicans, but that voter's souring stance on Trump has helped give Democrats an edge. He also credited Behn's focus on affordability issues, which also helped propel Democrats to major recent wins in New York City, Virginia and New Jersey.
"The sudden competitiveness of a special House election in a heavily gerrymandered Republican district is a good summation of Trump and the GOP’s current political freefall — and the rising political fortunes of Democrats," Cohen wrote, later observing that "with Democrats overperforming in special elections in 2025 by around 13 points — as well as a couple of unexpected double-digit victories in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, plus winning two statewide races in Georgia by nearly 25 points — seemingly even an R+22 seat could be up for grabs."