Trump's baggage problem: how the president may have damaged Vance's political future
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President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance on January 20, 2025 (The White House/Wikimedia Commons)
President Donald Trump is setting up Vice President JD Vance for political trouble in the 2028 presidential election — at least, that is the case if a prominent conservative columnist is to be believed.
“I don’t have any serious issue with the Trump administration’s actions in Iran,” wrote USA Today Opinion conservative columnist Dace Potas on Wednesday. “Immediately following our initial strikes, I wrote that the actions should have gone through Congress, but that I generally support military action against Iran, and I stand by my view.”
Potas’ observation is not a policy-based or moral one but rather a political one, namely, that Trump’s vice president and heir apparent is a well-known isolationist who now must defend an internationalist philosophy.
“Trump invoked the rhetoric of isolationism on the reelection campaign trail, promising no new wars to MAGA voters who rallied around that aspect of the ‘America First’ brand,” Potas wrote, noting that this aligned with Vance’s own professed views at the time. By invading Venezuela and Iran, however, the administration has “run counter to what Trump promised MAGA heading into the 2024 election,” which could cause blowback against Vance. Even though Potas doubted Vance’s likely rival Secretary of State Marco Rubio will be able to wrest the Republican nomination from him (Rubio, after all, is also linked to the war, and Potas suspects he will not run in 2028), he predicted it will cause problems for Vance in a general election. By way of illustrating this point, he brought up how Vice President Kamala Harris struggled to distance herself from President Joe Biden’s unpopular policies.
“Vance is a more talented candidate than Harris, but I’m not sure that’s enough to overcome his involvement in an unpopular administration,” Potas concluded. “Nor is it all that clear how he reconciles his intellectual opposition to interventionist foreign policy with his involvement in an administration active in that arena.”
Despite Potas predicting that Rubio will not run against Vance in the 2028 GOP primary, Trump is reportedly playing a “game” with both men about who will be the nominee that year.
“The 2028 election is more than 2½ years away, but it is very much on Trump’s mind, as he casts about for a suitable heir to his MAGA empire,” The Wall Street Journal wrote earlier in March. “For months, the president has privately polled advisers, donors and friends about the political strengths and weaknesses of his vice president and secretary of state, pitting the two young, ambitious Republicans against each other—whether they like it or not.”
Indeed, because Vance is linked to the party’s anti-war wing, many hawks have openly expressed preference for Rubio over their own vice president. These include Laura Loomer, the far right influencer widely known to have the president’s ear.
"RUBIO RISING ... Get ready for 2028!," Loomer posted in March shortly after the Iran war broke out.