‘This is going to get scary’: Putin critics explain why the Ukraine war could grow even deadlier

06 February 2023

Almost a year after Russian forces launched a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine on orders from President Vladimir Putin, the war continues to take a major toll on Russia politically, militarily and economically. Regardless, Putin is determined to keep the conflict going — not unlike the old Soviet Union in Afghanistan during the 1980s.

Putin’s critics, seeing how disastrous the war has been for Russia, are hoping that it will be his political downfall. Oleg Matveychev, a member of the Russian parliament, agrees that the war isn’t going well for Russia — but not because he opposes the invasion. Matveychev, according to Business Insider’s Sinéad Baker, supports the invasion but believes that Putin is in danger of a strong political challenge from a pro-invasion candidate.

Baker notes that Matveychev recently told the Times of London that for Putin, “the situation is not so critical yet, but 2023 will be very dangerous.”

According to Baker, “Matveychev said that ‘ultra-patriots’ in the country will likely put forward a candidate to run against Putin in next year's presidential elections, when Putin is set to run for a fifth term. He added that the candidate would likely follow the playbook from a series of protests in Ukraine in 2013, which ended in Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was allied with Russia, being ousted.”

In Mozhem Obyasnit, a Russian media outlet, former Putin speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov argued that frustration with Putin over the war could lead to a military coup in Russia. Matveychev sees Putin as being in danger of being voted out of office via a pro-invasion candidate; Gallyamov envisions Putin possibly being overthrown by the Russian military.

Meanwhile, conservative New York Times opinion columnist Thomas L. Friedman fears that the Russia/Ukraine war will get even worse before it gets better.

“Now the bad news,” Friedman writes in his February 5 column. “For the first year of this war, America and its allies have had it relatively easy. We could send arms, aid and intelligence — as well as impose sanctions on Moscow — and the Ukrainians would do the rest, ravaging Putin’s army and pushing his forces back into Eastern Ukraine. I don’t think Year Two is going to be so easy.”

Putin, Friedman warns, is showing no signs of giving up in Ukraine — quite the opposite, in fact.

“Putin, it’s now clear, has decided to double down, mobilizing in recent months possibly as many as 500,000 fresh soldiers for a new push on the war’s first anniversary,” the conservative columnist explains. “Mass matters in war — even if that mass contains a large number of mercenaries, convicts and untrained conscripts. Putin is basically saying to Biden: I can’t afford to lose this war, and I will pay any price and bear any burden to ensure that I come away with a slice of Ukraine that can justify my losses. How about you, Joe? How about your European friends? Are you ready to pay any price and bear any burden to uphold your ‘liberal order?’ This is going to get scary.”

ReadBusiness Insider’s full report at this link.

Read Thomas L. Friedman’s full New York Times column at this link.

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