How Trump’s 'daunting national lead could collapse'

The Daily Beast senior columnist Matt Lewis argues in a Friday, Sept. 1 op-ed that Iowa and New Hampshire have the power to dictate former President Donald Trump's fate.

"The only way to beat Donald Trump in a primary, Republican strategist Mike Murphy told me recently, is for someone else to win Iowa and New Hampshire," Lewis writes.

"This scenario is unlikely, but not impossible," he notes.

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Lewis argues, "There are reasons to believe it's at least possible. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, for example, continues to publicly say Trump will not be the nominee," and there's also "the possibility that Democrats might interfere in the Iowa caucuses, which (depending on their goals) could either help or hurt" the former president.

"The bottom line is that Donald Trump is still likely to be the Republican nominee, but not as likely as national polling might suggest," Lewis insists. "If someone can deprive him of early victories in high-profile, key states, his daunting national lead could collapse, and someone else could catch fire."

He writes:

So, how do Trump's opponents win? On the campaign trail, they can say that Trump was a good president, but that he is the most unpopular politician in America and that the stakes are too high to take a chance that he can win the electoral college again with 46 percent of the vote. They can say that Trump faces too many legal obstacles to run an effective campaign in 2024, and simultaneously make court appearances in four different states. They can say that Trump accomplished some good things, but that it's time to pass the torch to a conservative who can serve eight years and appoint more Supreme Court justices.

That message may or may not work, but for me it's the best they've got. And again, the numbers aren't as daunting as people looking solely at national polls might believe.

READ MORE: If Trump wants to win, Iowa voters 'expect him to be here': Gov. Kim Reynolds

Matt Lewis' full op-ed is available at this link (subscription required).