Hysteria looms as a beloved Trump faction abandons him

The last time President Donald Trump got stomped in a midterm election, in 2018, his unpopularity cost his Republican Party more than three dozen House seats.

But the New York Times reports even that wasn’t a true stomping because “the bottom never truly fell out for the Republicans that year.”

This year is gearing up to be the real stomp.

“The party actually gained ground in the Senate — as working-class white voters largely kept their faith in Mr. Trump’s economic know-how,” reports NY Times national political correspondent Shane Goldmacher. “Today, that once-deep reservoir of good will has largely evaporated.”

Trump’s crucial bloc of blue-collar white voters are, for the first time, extremely doubtful of Trump’s handling of the economy, and a NY Times review of polling is showing “an extraordinary swing on that issue among white voters without college degrees between his first midterm election and now.”

In 2018, working-class white voters still approved of Trump’s management of the economy by margins of 30 percentage points or even more. Now, recent polls reveal them disapproving of him by 14 to more than 30 points, depending on the survey.

To be sure, Trump’s approval on the economy has dropped across practically every group, but the Times reports his “cratering support” among his most loyal, most white demographic means a pivotal foundation of his political coalition for more than a decade is potentially “the most consequential developments of 2026,” according to interviews with strategists in both parties who are involved in the midterms.

Trump’s people and GOP strategists see the yawning cavern where their floor used to be, and they’re freaking. But they have no lifesavers to grab, according to surveys.

Trump’s advisers are trying to sell voters on the policies in last year’s tax cut package, but the American public does not appear to be biting.

“It’s working-class voters who are not happy with the Republican Party, and they may not come out and vote,” John McLaughlin, a Republican pollster who has worked for Trump for years, warned in an interview.

He added that he’s also seeing backsliding of Trump’s gains in 2024 among working-class Black and Hispanic voters.

At this point, one of the only groups that still support him on the economy in polls are hardcore Republicans, but that’s not nearly enough to salvage Republicans’ midterms — not when blue-collar white voters, who voted more than two to one for Trump in 2024 stay home or turn to Democrats.

“It’s critical,” said McLaughlin, of mobilizing the white working class. “If they don’t, we lose the House and the Senate.”