U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a dinner with the leaders of the C5+1Central Asian countries in the East Room of the White House (REUTERS)
President Donald Trump has recently had a series of successes campaigning against Republicans who displease him, with a majority going down to defeat in their primaries. Yet one Republican pollster argues that Trump, while winning these primary battles, may be losing the larger political war in the process.
“We all have to say enough,” Republican-leaning pollster Frank Luntz told CNN anchor Boris Sanchez on Wednesday. “You should not be destroyed because you decide to enter politics. People need to be held accountable for what they do or don't do, for what they say or don't say. And I think that we're just pulling ourselves apart. I know I sound like a broken record because I've mentioned this before on your show, but it's all bad. It's all problematic, and it's not okay if the Republicans do it. It's not okay if the Democrats do it. We need to call an end to this.”
While acknowledging that ‘politics is a tough business,” Luntz argued that it is un-democratic for Trump to send the message that Republicans who cross him will face career ruination as a result. Sanchez then asked him to apply his argument to Trump’s recent endorsement of State Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-Texas) over Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is up for reelection. Trump also endorsed Ed Gallrein in his successful primary campaign against Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) in her primary campaign against Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.)
“And we can't forget the Indiana local races — the state senate races — which is very rare for a president to weigh in on,” Luntz said. “Five out of seven were defeated. His effort to defeat Senator Cassidy of Louisiana was successful. We've never had a president more active in his own party than President Trump. He is the king of the hill. He's the big kahuna. And what this says is that if you run afoul of Donald Trump as a Republican in a primary, you're going to be defeated. And I see this, and I think — as a pollster, as someone who studies elections — this is significant. This is not an endorsement of his policies. This is an endorsement of him personally. So he says he wants candidates to get elected, and there's no doubt that those candidates are going to win Republican primaries. The challenge for the president is what happens in November, because he can elect all these people in primary situations — and he will — but will those people be viable in November?”
Luntz added, “I see the Republicans having serious troubles in the House, and increasing troubles in the Senate. I think it is more likely than not that Democrats win the majority in the House. So he needs to be focused not just on who the Republicans nominate, but if the president is to be successful, it's the general election that matters most.”
Michael Signorile, a liberal commentator and analyst, echoed Luntz’s analysis on Tuesday.
“All of this is delicious to see, as Republicans have spent millions of dollars trying to help Cornyn through this runoff next Tuesday,” Signorile wrote. “But of course, there’s always the chance Paxton loses—polls have him and Cornyn tied—and Trump is deflated as his endorsement fizzles. There’s also, of course, the very real possibility that Paxton prevails over Talerico, and then we have another scandal-plagued, sleazy GOP senator.”
Signorile added, “But for Democrats, a scenario in which Trump is doing things that could undermine the GOP is the best scenario to have. And it is yet more proof of how Trump’s own megalomania drives him, even when it’s clear it might not end well for him.”