The real story behind Trump’s 'no-cost' Venezuelan oil deal

President Donald Trump watches the military operation in Venezuela from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, January 3, 2026. REUTERS

President Donald Trump is touting a potentially massive new deal with Venezuela, but as a new piece from The i Paper argued, it seems primed to become yet another promise from him that will ultimately mean "almost nothing in reality."

Writing for the outlet this week, reporter and columnist James Ball detailed the "BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY" that Trump claimed was underway between the U.S. and Venezuela, months after he ordered a military operation to detain its leader, Nicolás Maduro. The president claimed that the deals would give the U.S. "control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven oil reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American taxpayer.”

Given that "the federal government would not involve itself in such a deal" and given the fraught recent circumstances between the two nations, Ball suggested that the deal could be "something else" entirely, "one sovereign nation seizing the oil reserves of another without proper consent or compensation." This possibility is especially concerning, given that many now argue that interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez lacks the authority to make such a deal.

Beyond that, Ball also suggested that the deal could be yet another "dramatic" boast from Trump that will never materialize, or come to pass in a much more meager state than promised.

"This is the sort of stuff that used to top the headlines for days at a time, but Trump’s announcement has made barely a ripple – partly because no one is at all sure whether the Venezuelan oil deal is even real," Ball wrote. "If it is, then it has seismic implications for international law, for oil markets and more. But the US President announcing something is no longer a reliable indicator as to whether or not it’s really happening."

He continued: "Trump has announced huge tariff packages that never materialise. He has announced what seems like dozens of peace deals and ceasefires with Iran, some of which fall apart within minutes of his social posts. Last month, he declared a deal to permanently disarm Hamas, only for it to transpire that Israel had never even signed up to the agreement. Time and again, Trump tries to make dramatic moves on the world stage, only for them to turn out to mean almost nothing in reality."

Ball noted that such a deal, which could violate foundational international laws surrounding national sovereignty, could be the latest in a growing line of moves from Trump that "would overturn the world’s existing international order" if executed, citing such examples as his "jokes" about annexing Canada and Greenland as new states.

"Perhaps on some level, Trump is succeeding in normalizing his erratic and preposterous behavior," Ball added. "It is simply not possible to maintain a constant level of outrage every day for 18 months, even against the most extreme of provocations. But something more than exhaustion might be at work here. Partly, it is increasingly difficult to take Donald Trump seriously, because so few of his announcements are actually backed up by substance."

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