President Donald Trump with Sen. John Thune and First Lady Melania Trump on January 8, 2025 (Office of Senator John Thune/Wikimedia Commons)
During both of his inaugurations — January 20, 2017 and January 20, 2025 — President Donald Trump had Republican majorities awaiting him in both branches of Congress. But if the 2026 midterms play out like the 2018 midterms, the GOP could lose the U.S. House of Representatives in November while holding the U.S. Senate.
Democratic strategists are feeling optimistic about their chances of flipping the House, where Republicans have a small 218-214 majority. And Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York) is saying that the Senate is also in play for her party, while acknowledging that trying to flip Congress' upper chamber is an uphill climb.
In an article published on February 25, USA Today's Zachary Schermele reports that GOP lawmakers — realizing they could lose one or both branches of Congress in November — are focusing on ways to make the most out of their time in 2026.
"President Donald Trump may have only a year left with a Republican-controlled Congress," Schermele explains. "But it's anyone's guess exactly what he wants to do with it — and what's possible with a razor-thin majority — especially if he wants to keep the Senate and House of Representatives in the GOP's hands after the midterm elections in November."
The USA Today reporter adds, "Codifying his global tariffs, for instance, in the wake of a bruising Supreme Court defeat likely isn't on the table…. Through executive orders and regulatory actions, Trump said he's already making efforts on his own to do things like bringing down prescription drug costs…. He also called for housing reform, a ban on stock trading by members of Congress, and a crackdown on driver’s licenses for undocumented immigrants."
According to Schermele, "Republican congressional leaders" are "keeping a wary eye on the political calendar" as the midterms draw closer.
"That's part of why Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota, hasn't yet fully bowed to White House pressure to pass the SAVE Act, which would require Americans to provide proof of citizenship to register to vote," Schermele notes. "With a 60-vote threshold standing in the way of the legislation's success, some lawmakers have floated a plan to revive an old tool known as the talking filibuster to get around Senate rules. That could allow lawmakers to debate for weeks on end, eating up precious time, Thune warned earlier this month.
Schermele adds, "'The coin of the realm in the Senate is floor time,' he told reporters. 'There’s a finite amount of it. And we have a lot of things we have to do.'"
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