A man wears a MAGA hat on the fifth anniversary of the attack in Washington, D.C., U.S., January 6, 2026. REUTERS/Leah Millis
Donald Trump has historically performed well with various voter groups who, for one reason or another, view him as "anti-establishment," but now, according to a new analysis from The Atlantic, he faces a "shrinking coalition" as these voters increasingly see him as "the system" he once seemed to oppose.
Writing for The Atlantic on Monday, journalist Jonathan Chait outlined the numerous "reversals" of his past campaign promises that are now alienating his 2024 coalition. Despite claiming that he would only ramp up deportations of criminals, an idea Chait argued was resonant with Latino communities, his actual policies now see anyone and everyone in that community under fire by ICE. Despite pledging to end costly overseas military conflicts, he has now carried out a contentious strike against Venezuela and has eyes on deploying troops to seize Greenland. Once touting himself as a champion of free speech, Trump has instead "relentlessly cracked down on the speech that he opposes," including against people critical of Israel and of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk after his killing.
These and many other "reversals" outlined by Chait share one particular trait: "alienating anti-system voters because [Trump] now controls the system."
"His appeal lay in his opposition to established power, but now that he has it, he is flexing it gleefully," Chait explained. "He is the warmonger, the censor, the face of the Epstein cover-up. It is hard to remain an outsider while holding the world’s most powerful job."
Trump remained somewhat immune to this phenomenon during his first term, as despite his many betrayals of campaign promises back then, he faced much more pushback from the system designed to keep presidential power in check and suffered numerous high-profile political defeats. Chait argued that this made Trump seem, to these "anti-system" voters, like "an outsider within his own presidency," who "fought the law, and the law won."
"Trump is no longer making this complaint about the established forces working against him, because he has solved this problem," Chait wrote. "His presidency is filled with loyalists. He has largely overcome any reluctance that officials might have had in carrying out his most unethical or illegal demands. He can’t present himself as anti-system, because he has become the system... Trump seems to assume that voters share his own worship of power. His most intense fans may revel in his displays of dominance, but his least attached supporters — the ones who turned him from a loser in 2020 to a winner in 2024 — are recoiling."